During last week, trading was focused around expectations of labor market news from the USA. The officials can change earlier access to some information, so they were waiting for the strong employment data. Hesitations about it appeared along with the release of the US PMI. The index dropped below 50, reflecting lack of activity in August. Car sales as well could not bring some joy, so dollar was under pressure and EURUSD returned to the area 1.1200. For the previous four days the pair crept down to 1.1100, but could not to break it lower. Weekly unemployment claims as well supported the thought that Friday report will not be significantly strong. It happened exactly the same way. NFP change was 151 k (against expected 180k). Wages raised by 0.1%, slowing down its yearly rate from 2.7% a month before to 2.4%. During this news release dollar bulls have stepped back temporary. From the look of it, the market has massive demand for the American currency. However, these big players initially allowed usd to pullback reacting to payrolls and afterwards started to buy it. As a whole, NFP change during the summer did not allow federal reserve to postpone rate decision. The cautiousness may be explained by the wages inertness and unexpected decrease of the working hours in the economy. The next week the market will focus on the ECB rate decision. They do not expect policy changing, however, the main risk (both sides) goes with draghi's declamation of the further easing measures, since the first data after brexit already received and the Bank of England made its turn.
GBPUSD
Meanwhile, British economy continues to surprise by its statistical data. Finally, the cable had reached 1.33 level, which was earlier in August before rate decreasing. Although, technical analysis is showing serious resistance close to current levels. Pullback that happened on Friday by the end of the day, if it continues in the beginning of the new week, may lead a way to the lower boundary of the channel, around 1.29. Taking 1.3350 level (1.34 for the better confirmation) will be a strong sign for the pound bulls. They hesitate a lot about the last – it is unlikely for Brexit to turn out so useless.
USDJPY
Yen was almost the only currency, which was constantly weakening during a week. The reasons are both – demand on dollars and stimulus expectations from the Japanese policymakers. On Friday USDJPY touched 104. The pair is only one step away to the important resistance of the downtrend. Its breakout will convince markets in the power of bulls, directing the pair to 106 area (previous local high) and further to 111, where one more local high and 200 MA are situated.
Three weeks of growth, one flat week with the insignificant decline and one week of quite serious drop. oil has its chances for the growth caused by the further speculations around possible freezing of production levels at the end of the month. Although, the world will stay away from oversupply now by means of the production cutting and not the freezing on high levels. Meanwhile, the Americans continue to increase their production. Oil is now in the range 50-40 (30?), but obviously it moves from the upper boundary.
