Dominance of downtrends

Bears

EURUSD

Friday payrolls from the USA appeared strong. It is important to mention that not only employment increased but either wages growth accelerated. Thus, all together those indicators shifted expectations what gave the powerful impulse to buying USD against most currencies. For EURUSD this strong data resulted in a big drop of 110 points and in a support level a bit higher 1.10. At the beginning of the new week the pair was traded around this level, reflecting the traders’ search for new impulses. Trade has been consolidating around 1.10 since the end of June. As well the pair is traded currently more…

Clearer deflation in Europe

EUR/USD

The EU inflation keeps slowing down. The most important news here came yesterday from Germany, which didn’t see any price growth in November after the decline by 0.3% a month before. Yet, the annual inflation rate dropped to 0.6%. Last time inflation was that low at the end of 2009 because of the economic meltdown and cut in consumer spending. Now the situation is a bit different. The unemployment level is the lowest since the time of Germany’s reunification, as was shown in the employment report for November. Besides, it was messaged that the number of the unemployed had decreased again more…

Deceitful weakening of USD

EUR/USD

The US dollar opened the week with a gap against the EU currencies, but immediately lost its advantage. The negative factor here was the ECB’s mood for further easing of the monetary policy and expansion of the incentives by possible bond purchases. After Draghi’s speech to the Parliament at the end of the previous week it became more possible that during the press-conference at the beginning of December it will be announced how fast and on what terms the European CB will purchase public debt of the EU countries. As it is absolutely clear that the current bond purchases are miserable more…

FOMC faces headwinds

EUR/USD

USD fell under pressure yesterday after the release of the FOMC’s meeting minutes in October. Then the Committee stopped bond purchases, so market participants expected to see the discussion if it was reasonable in the minutes. Among the voting members there was only one dissident – Narayana Kocherlakota, who appealed for further QE until inflation reached the target rates. It is an extremely dovish position, but it was long known to the market and so didn’t arouse any surprise. The minutes were remarkable for comments that inflation would remain low for a while despite the large-scale quantitative easing, which was already more…

Good news from Germany helps EUR and stocks

EUR/USD

Thanks to the strong statistics from Germany, the single currency managed to continue forming a short-term uptrend. The German ZEW index has risen to 11.5 in November, which is the first increase of the index since December 2013 and is much above the forecast rate of just 0.9. It is of interest that the Current Situation Index also has grown (often it moves in the opposite direction from the general index). Yet, the growth was very little, just 0.3 points up to 3.5. The ZEW Economic Sentiment for the entire eurozone also proved to be better than expected. In November it more…