GOLD (XAUUSD) Weekly Forecast (08/01/2020 – 14/01/2020)

News and Data:

  • CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 51.7 expected
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.2 vs 49 expected
  • US FOMC Meeting Minutes expected to cut interest rate 2 times in 2020
  • US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55 vs 54.5 expected

Market Update:

Gold price jumped over $1,600 per ounce this morning upon the news that AL Asad airbase in western Iraq has come under retaliatory attack from Iran. This action is viewed as the direct attack on American forces located in the region. Following the news of the attack, stocks prices dropped but oil and GOLD rose. Gold has bounced back around more…

Either Yellen or oil will reverse the market

Janet Yellen


This week EURUSD was one step away from the important resistance area – 1.14. Bulls were feeling lack of informational reason to push the pair against that level – no important news were released on Friday both from the USA and Eurozone. Even not taking this physiological level, the Dollar’s retreat looks more like capitulation. Market participants are more and more confident about the feeling that Fed reserve will not tighten the policy this year, especially in September. Meanwhile Fed officials, conversely, say more often that they should not exclude such event. Minutes of July FOMC meeting eventually caused the wave more…

FOMC stops suppressing Dollar



Last hour common currency managed to break the trading channel where it was traded the whole April. EURUSD dropped below 1.1320 that was not reached since March, 31. The turn started yesterday when bulls could not continue growth and stayed above 1.1450. Probably, we witness the turn of the pair but it is quite early to talk about it confidently now, we have to wait for confirmation of closing trades below 1.1320. Dollar was supported by hawkish speeches of Williams and Lacker. Williams said that it would be normal to increase the rate 2-3 time during this year. Meanwhile Lacker stressed more…

FOMC faces headwinds


USD fell under pressure yesterday after the release of the FOMC’s meeting minutes in October. Then the Committee stopped bond purchases, so market participants expected to see the discussion if it was reasonable in the minutes. Among the voting members there was only one dissident – Narayana Kocherlakota, who appealed for further QE until inflation reached the target rates. It is an extremely dovish position, but it was long known to the market and so didn’t arouse any surprise. The minutes were remarkable for comments that inflation would remain low for a while despite the large-scale quantitative easing, which was already more…

Not everyone can make USD retreat


Yesterday’s US statistics put a negative impact on the dollar. Investors’ disappointment was aroused by the utterly poor data on durable goods orders. The decline of the general index by 18.3% in September didn’t entail recovery. In September the volume of orders fell by 1.3%. The core industries, without considering orders in the transport sector a month earlier, have grown by 0.7% and in September they lost 0.2% instead of growing by 0.5% as expected. This picture speaks about cautiousness of corporations regarding economic prospects. In its turn, it can lower investors’ optimism about the prospects of the labour market, which more…