EUR/usd
The US employment statistics proved to be favouable, though all the short-term growth potential of eurusd had been “eaten away” by the market movement a day before. As a result, the dollar bulls failed to bring the pair below the lows of the previous day, yet the decline from 1.3435 to 1.3312 can hardly be called unimpressive. So, what was good about the employment statistics? First of all, the number of new jobs in October exceeded 200K (204), moreover the rates of the preceding two months were also revised up. Thus, the average rate for the last three months is also beyond 200K. This should urge the fomc to hurry up with the reduction of the bond-buying programme. Friday's stats again afforded grounds to expect it in December. So, we just need to understand if Bernanke will venture to do this just two months before a new president takes office. Janet yellen in general sticks to the same policy as Bernanke (an active dove), but it is a different person, so she might have her own views on the monetary policy and the factors that will allow for the stimulus rollback. In Europe the situation is completely different, here the need for economic support is still strong. And we think that draghi's resoluteness when cutting the rate on Thursday was quite reasonable. Then we also believe that the ECB will work to build up liquidity for banks by means of low-interest loans. It is to shift interest rates upwards for the dollar and downwards for the euro. In Forex it should result in further decline of the pair. Thus, the current rate (1.3350) can hardly be called low. We believe that further decline is quite possible. And taking into account that by the end of the year market participants get lured to the round figures, a drop to 1.30 is quite likely.
GBP/USD
The British pound failed to remain above 1.60 after quite strong payrolls. The pair hit the lows at 1.5956. Anyway, bulls managed to defend this level last week (it closed out higher), and now trading continues here. We can hardly expect any serious shifts today as there's no important news scheduled. All attention will be turned to tomorrow's data on the British inflation.
USD/JPY
Last week was very changeable for usdjpy, still bulls managed to gain the upper hand at its end. The pair grew to 99.0. At these levels (except for a few hours on last Thursday) the yen hasn't been trading since late September. The country's stats in the previous weeks left Abe's strategies to stimulate growth in serious doubt, but today's data on the current account balance are quite favourable, being actually the highest since April. We still stick to the bullish scenario for the pair.
AUD/USD
The aussie keeps sliding down. The US employment, readiness of the RBA to cut the rate and disappointing economic data are the factors which put pressure on the Australian currency. In the short term it may put pressure, but in general we don't think that audusd is capable of continuous decline.