EUR/usd
Despite the blow draghi delivered to the single currency last week and also the pressure put by the employment statistics, the single currency is still strong enough to make its way up. The charts show a series of ascending intraday lows: 1.3293, 1.3317, 1.3358. In the short term these data can be enough to be bullish, but regarding a longer term it is quite dangerous to purchase the single currency at the current levels. Trading is now held at 1.3430 and it is the highest rate which eurusd corrected to after the rate cut announcement. It is quite likely that the pair will resume falling at these levels. We still stick to the bearish scenario, but look at it with caution now as far as the short term is concerned. In our opinion, the 200-day MA should attract the bearish forces. Now it is slightly above 1.3200 and is moving horizontally. The bears will have to make some effort to reach it, it is not enough to just defend the current positions. There's no important news scheduled for today in the eurozone and the USA. But tomorrow there will be a release of Flash GDP for Europe in the third quarter. Please note that the most important components (stats for Germany, Italy and France) will be published a bit earlier, so the main reaction may come at other releases.
GBP/USD
Britain has surprised with its strong employment statistics. The claimant count rate shrank by 41.7K, which is much better than expected (-33.2K). Already for three months unemployment has been decreasing by over 40K a month. Accordingly, other employment indicators have been improving as well. The unemployment level for three months ended September went down to 7.6% (in February it was 7.9%). The labour market gathered the pace it showed at the end of the previous year. Naturally, the sterling grew on such news. But that's not all. Later the BOE released the inflation report where Bank of England governor Carney pointed out that the intermediate unemployment rate is likely to be reached earlier than supposed by the bank in summer.
USD/JPY
The pair continued its upsurge, which can't but be favoured by the bulls. Yesterday the rate reached 99.80, which hadn't been seen for two months, but already today it corrected a bit and is now trading at 99.50. Tomorrow it will be an important day for the Japanese currency as Prelim GDP for the third quarter will be published . Let's see if Abe's ‘three arrows' will meet the expectations. Upon the whole we expect further growth in the coming weeks.
AUD/USD
The aussie keeps suffering. The Australian dollar has dropped below 0.9300 by now, which corresponds to the lowest levels since October. We can hardly expect a reversal in the trend as all the main releases (inflation, employment and the RBA's decision) have already been in November. Now the Aussie will be prone to the impact of the US statistics.
