Forex still can’t venture to attack important levels

EUR/USD

Yesterday’s hopes for a quick attack of dollar bulls failed. Though we were right in our forecasts regarding ZEW, the single currency didn’t manage to break through 1.3500 and during the Asian session today the pair grew to 1.3580, thus exceeding the daily high of Tuesday. As you remember, yesterday we supposed that Germany’s business sentiment would weaken, against the general expectations of growth. The actual data showed decline from 62 to 61.7 instead of growth to 64.0. Strictly speaking, the figures are not bad, at least they are not too poor so that the euro ram 1.3500. So, this event more…

Expecting RBNZ tightening and BOJ stimulus

EUR/USD

Yesterday we spoke about growing signs of a reversal in the pair. Though it was a quiet day yesterday and the single currency even went off the local lows, we are now only firmer in our belief. Yesterday’s move from 1.3506 up to 1.3560 was nothing more than a correction after the impressive decline on Friday. Since neither Friday nor yesterday brought any important news, which would have accounted for the movement of the euro/dollar, the latter should be treated from the technical point of view. The drop by more than a figure, which was then followed by a proper pullback more…

EUR: about to reverse

EUR/USD

Probably, it is too early to speak about this, but it seems that the euro/dollar has just reversed. In October and December the single currency unsuccessfully tried to break through 1.38 against the dollar. And if there were some grounds for the former, the latter rise took place amid low volumes in the thin holiday market. The main target of such an ascent is to wash out shorts, which usually precedes a real reversal. It’s a kind of the bulls’ last attack or chasing for stops. Since the beginning of the year the stress has been laid on the rational strategy more…

Friday’s fall of the dollar – is it a signal?

EUR/USD

The upward move, which we described in our Friday’s review, was just the beginning of the drama that developed further. The single currency didn’t have a single black candlestick till 13 GMT, closing positive all the time. As expected under such conditions, the following upsurges were stronger than the preceding ones. The pair got exhausted already at 1.3891. By then it had already made 70 pips in one direction and almost 30pips in the opposite one over 15 minutes. Technically, these are the highest levels since late 2011. And from a strictly technical point of view, Friday’s move opens the way more…

Bulls’ spurt

EUR/USD

Despite the strong domestic statistics, the American currency still feels pressured. Nevertheless, the pressure weighs not only upon the US currency, but also on other safe assets. The yen and franc are suffering and the stock markets keep demonstrating impressive growth. This surge of optimism has been caused by the news that the US employment market is doing well. The weekly unemployment claims have reduced by 42K to 338K instead of growing to 380. The forecasters have made a serious mistake, or probably it is all about the holiday season, when population gets less active. After all, the number of continuing more…