Futile volatility

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The unemployment statistics proved to be relatively good, but since for the most part they met the expectations, the market didn’t see any significant volatility. The US employers increased the number of jobs by 192K in March against the consensus forecast of 199K. Against expectations, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, but this is not bad news as the participation rate grew from 63.0% to 63.2%. Average weekly hours grew more than expected, from 34.3 to 34.5 hr. The current rate already corresponds to the average pre-crisis rates, so we can already speak about returning to the normal workweek schedule more…

Closing short positions in commodity currencies

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The euro is still under pressure. The support at 1.3750/60, which had been strong at the beginning of the week, was surrendered by the bulls yesterday. By the way, similar performance is observed in the US stock markets. They are sagging under the burden of rate-increase expectations. However, the dollar cannot start a real rally as there is no unanimity in the FOMC. Evans, for example, expects a rate increase in the second half of 2015.  It somehow contradicts the core market forecast, according to which the rates will be raised in the first half. The dollar is depreciating against the more…

FOMC is braver than expected

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The Fed’s commentary provoked strengthening of the US dollar. Purchasing was caused mostly by the increased intention to raise the rate next year. It is not stated in the published forecasts, but observers have figured out that these forecasts speak about a possibility of the rate increase approximately in the middle of the next year. If actual and forecasted data differ significantly, the QE3 programme may be brought to a close already this year. Yesterday’s cut, as expected, made 10bln dollars. Besides, FOMC chose not to peg interest rates to the unemployment rate, but consider a wider range of indicators. Apparently more…

Markets are waiting for Yellen

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The market showed a strange reaction to Putin’s speech yesterday. Market participants took positively that Russia didn’t lay claims on the rest of pro-Russian territories of the Ukraine and other post-Socialist countries. Stock markets unanimously set out in the upward direction, whereas the reaction of currencies was contradictory. The initial growth of the euro to 1.3940 (due to risk demand) was followed by a pullback and new intraday lows at 1.3880. If we exclude nervousness caused by the news, the pair has been staying at the same level since the beginning of the week. The focus of attention is expectedly shifting more…

Markets grew quiet in anticipation of the political resolutions

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The emerging markets feel pressure in connection with risk aversion, while futures and indices of the developing countries as well as the currency market remain relatively quiet. The thing is that the main political fight is still ahead. The overwhelming majority of the Crimean people, as expected, voted for annexing to Russia. America and the new authorities in Kiev, as expected, don’t recognize the referendum and speak about intrusion of the Russian troops into the Ukraine. The West is threatening with sanctions, though the observers,  including the foreign ones, note that the referendum was carried out quietly. The risks are very more…