Deceitful weakening of USD

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The US dollar opened the week with a gap against the EU currencies, but immediately lost its advantage. The negative factor here was the ECB’s mood for further easing of the monetary policy and expansion of the incentives by possible bond purchases. After Draghi’s speech to the Parliament at the end of the previous week it became more possible that during the press-conference at the beginning of December it will be announced how fast and on what terms the European CB will purchase public debt of the EU countries. As it is absolutely clear that the current bond purchases are miserable more…

FOMC faces headwinds

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

USD fell under pressure yesterday after the release of the FOMC’s meeting minutes in October. Then the Committee stopped bond purchases, so market participants expected to see the discussion if it was reasonable in the minutes. Among the voting members there was only one dissident – Narayana Kocherlakota, who appealed for further QE until inflation reached the target rates. It is an extremely dovish position, but it was long known to the market and so didn’t arouse any surprise. The minutes were remarkable for comments that inflation would remain low for a while despite the large-scale quantitative easing, which was already more…

Good news from Germany helps EUR and stocks

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Thanks to the strong statistics from Germany, the single currency managed to continue forming a short-term uptrend. The German ZEW index has risen to 11.5 in November, which is the first increase of the index since December 2013 and is much above the forecast rate of just 0.9. It is of interest that the Current Situation Index also has grown (often it moves in the opposite direction from the general index). Yet, the growth was very little, just 0.3 points up to 3.5. The ZEW Economic Sentiment for the entire eurozone also proved to be better than expected. In November it more…

EURCHF is close to the line

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The disappointing rates of the Japanese growth would keep putting pressure on the global stock indices but for Draghi’s speech yesterday which brought some relief to the market. The  ECB’s governor again pointed at the readiness to provide more incentives, including bond purchases in case inflation goes below the forecast inflation. These comments boosted demand for stocks of the EU periphery and for stocks around the world as well. Tapering in the US didn’t put an end to the epoch of easy money. Now it is coming from Japan and the eurozone. Moreover, members both of the European and Asian CBs more…

False dip of the greenback

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

USD’s growth at the beginning of the US session last Friday could be easily accounted for by the desire to lock in profits. For that reason market participants selected the first coming macroeconomic report as a cause to lock in profits. The newsfeeds say that they hurried to sell the dollar on the message about  increase in business inventories by 0.3%. But in our opinion, it’s hardly reasonable. This growth of business inventories, in accord with some surveys, met the expectations. Moreover, the news releases before and after the business inventories report were also better than expected. And they were of more…