EUR/usd
The dollar was getting weaker all through the EU session yesterday. Only at 1.3640 bulls eased their pressure, taking their profits. The same situation was observed in the stock exchanges. Now the euro/dollar is trading at 1.36, thus promising a good week for bulls. They will hardly yield here without trying to attack the 200-day MA. All this depreciation of the dollar leads to decline in the VIX volatility index. Earlier we thought that the very approach of the index to its lows would be more than enough and the market wouldn't go further, since we expected that volatility would grow on toughening of the Fed's rhetoric. It didn't happen. yellen proved to be much milder than expected. The market is more and more sure that purchasing of risky assets should continue as it is impossible to earn from bonds due to their low yield. It's all true about the dollar, but eurusd's performance is also influenced by the state of the single currency. The consequences of abandoning the idea to sterilize liquidity are yet to be seen. Such steps of the ECB should and already decrease the yields of EU bonds. This makes euro-assets less profitable. Yet, many bonds of the former troubled countries have higher yields than their counterparts in the USA and Japan. What here is important for us? The fact that the ECB's actions put their little impact on the euro's positions. All other things being equal, the single currency remained under pressure, as it is now against the pound. However, the fact that the markets don't think Yellen will speed up tapering and increase the rates before the middle of the next year, make USD melt.
GBP/USD
The cable has been growing for three days in a row and also is close to fix its growth in the last three weeks. The impulse to sell the US dollar has inspired the pound-bulls, who are now triggering stop-orders, hitting new highs since 2008. Anyway, here we shouldn't forget that growth is happening under almost exclusive conditions, including the low VIX and highs of the stock exchanges. This situation can't last for long.
USD/JPY
The pair is again trying to break above 102.0. Still below this level there are too many buyers, who like us consider the yen to be fundamentally weak. Yet, we can't ignore the unbelievably increased strength of skeptics in this matter. You can understand them, since the BOJ stopped speaking about a new portion of incentives, expecting further moderate economic growth.
gold
All that story with mildness of the two largest CBs in the world made commodities a true winner. In particular, Gold, which is also in demand on the growing political tension in Iraq. Now the rates are at 1307, yet we are again above the 200-day MA (now 1287). It promises at least a few days of growth. Yet, today we can quite expect a pullback to 1300 or even to 1290.
