EUR/usd
The story with the Malay plane combined with closeness of the local lows in eurusd provoked emergency liquidation of long positions. The pair was picked up below 1.35, but before that it managed to gather stops after reaching 1.3490. bears were very close to the annual lows, set in early February (1.3476), but failed to cross them. Anyway, the week was closed above 1.35 and this morning the single currency was still being purchased. Now the pair is trading at 1.3540, having come off the dangerous lows, which are able to provoke further decline. There is no important news scheduled for today, so trading in Forex will depend on the changes in the geopolitical background. Today trading is likely to be sluggish, but in the grand scheme of things and from the viewpoint of technical analysis it is very likely that the pair will continue its depreciation. Besides, confident breaking through 1.3500 will open the way for a continuous and long-awaited depreciation. However, the only trigger here is seen in the strong US employment statistics (to some extent) and the Fed's comment to the rate decision on July 30. Until then the pair can feel quite comfortable trading sideways or even trying to intensify its attack. This can be caused by assurances of the officials from the core EU countries that the current measures are already enough and the threat of deflation doesn't look real. As has already been mentioned, many in the eurozone are against further steps of the ECB, still believing that the situation will get better on its own. Probably, it will be this way, but it will take much time and in its turn will cause structural changes in the economy, be it the labour market, the real estate market or industrial production.
GBP/USD
The cable also suffered heavy selling with the further pullback on Friday. At some moment the pair fell down to 1.7035, while the daily high was set at 1.7116 five hours before. There were no considerable reasons for such a move in Forex, so soon the pair was again given to complete control of bulls. This way or another the previous week was the second one when the pound was adjusting against the dollar. It is quite possible that right now we are observing the beginning of a reversal in the pair.
USD/JPY
The yen, on the contrary, doesn't show a single sign of possible resumption of the upward rally. Just like us, many market participants stopped believing that the BOJ will continue to step on the gas, increasing the pace of money printing in order to strengthen the economy, putting pressure on the yen. It seems that the dollar's rally can serve as the only reason for growth of the pair. However, should the rally begin, stock exchanges will start falling, which, first of all, will provoke purchases of usdjpy.
AUD/USD
On Friday the Australian dollar escaped craving for demand for USD. By the end of the day it had managed to show good growth from 0.9335 (the daily low hit soon after opening) to 0.9388. Besides, during the day there were attempts to take the pair above 0.94. Bears didn't allow it – the pair was actively defended against breaking of that technical level. In the meantime trading is held above 0.92, the level of the 200-day MA. In other words, for now the situation is in bulls' favour.
