EUR/usd

Yesterday we witnessed a splendid rally against the dollar. Let's be honest, it was quite a surprising thing. EURUSD grew from the lows of Thursday (1.3470) by over two figures. The markets slowed down only near the yearly highs, at 1.3680. Now we see some consolidation, so the pair has managed to retrace by 20pips off yesterday's highs. When ascending, stock markets managed to hit a fresh historic high at 1733 (for the December futures). Psychologically the optimism is understandable: the markets got the long-awaited relief and the debt ceiling increase, which is able to arouse demand for risky assets. But on the other hand, earlier these very markets were not worried much and didn't fall which contrasts with what was over two years ago under similar circumstances. Thus, the market's craving to sell the dollar is so strong that even the threat of the government default can't stop it. Probably, it is possible only when the market revises the monetary policy prospects. And only some believe that the Fed will venture to reduce the bond-buying programme “as early as December”. Supposing that Bernanke's hesitation was based on unresolved problems with the budget and debt ceiling, we won't see cuts in purchasing at least till March. All this is bad for the dollar and may boost its weakening. Now we need to make out how the mood of fomc's members has changed. We'll learn it in less than two weeks after another meeting of the Committee. By that time the stats whose release was postponed because of the government shutdown will have been eventually published. And until then there's nothing left for us to do but see after speeches of the officials. The latter ring that the curtailment depends solely on the statistics, as if politics hadn't produced any impact on them. 

GBP/USD

The sterling is coming back. No, the pound is not better than the euro, but in the recent hours it has been doing equally well, which is good in itself. Against the US dollar the sterling rose from the levels seen three weeks ago and is now trading at 1.6180, which is also not bad. It is 70pips from the highs of the beginning of the month and 150 pips from the yearly highs. Considering the pound's volatility, it is quite a petty breakaway, so, most likely, the bulls will want to beat their way to these highs. 

USD/JPY

The yen has found sellers, but even their support doesn't help it fight gravity of the US dollar. As a result, usdjpy remains below 98, dashed by weakness of the dollar. Such short-term tendencies are caused by funds outflow from the dollar into the liquid yen-markets, but soon this liquidity will go into more earning assets, which will weaken the Japanese currency. 

gold

Gold is rushing up and already yesterday it managed to break out of the conventional downtrend, crossing 1308. We expected it later. This way or another, be careful, probably it is the beginning of a multi-month uptrend.