EUR/usd
Last week ended with a slight appreciation of the dollar. But this growth wasn't enough to make up the losses, suffered earlier that week because of absence of a sound reason. This week players seem to be willing to continue locking in profits in the US assets. The dollar and stock indices are falling simultaneously. It is remarkable that S&P 500 has gone below the local low of August and is at risk of getting to the highs of early March – mid May. These levels (near 1870) can become quite a good support just the same way they served as a good resistance at the beginning of the year. In its turn, the currency market still has a slight potential for USD's retreat. And the market is determined to make the most of it. By now eurusd has offset almost all Friday's losses and is posing a threat to 1.2700, though it is still at quite a distance from the recent high of 1.2790. Today no important news comes from the eurozone, so it is quite possible that the pair will want to adjust and grow to its recent highs. The optimism of the euro is maintained by the comments that very soon the economy will be spurred by the impact of a weak euro due to growth of exports. Besides, producers benefit from the decline of energy prices as shipping and production costs, but still there is a big question with the demand inside the region. Moreover, the business sentiment indicators are again in the limelight. It is interesting to understand whether the business is as optimistic as those commentators who predict a reversal in the near future. It is quite likely that reality will prove to be more severe, which will again put pressure on the euro. Yet, the further weakening of the euro in its turn can be limited by Fed's cautiousness. Despite the signs of the strength of the US economy, the Committee sees a threat to the American growth from the slowdown of the global economy. Far from everyone in fomc is ready to raise the rates in the middle of the next year as expected by the market. Some say that it should be the end of the year.
GBP/USD
The cable has returned above 1.61, but just like the euro is at quite a distance from the recent highs (1.6220). The quiet day in the markets due to absence of important news from Europe and holidays in the USA and Canada, apparently, will enable the pair to drift further towards the highs, but for all that posing no threat to these levels. Especially before tomorrow, when there will be a release of inflation risks to consumer, housing and production prices. The British pound can get wide support among the players, if the rates are above 1.5% (the rate of August) against the forecast of 1.4%. Fluctuations less than 0.1% from the forecasted rate will hardly be able to provoke a continuous rally.
USD/JPY
The yen is making the most of a brief weakness of the dollar. usdjpy opened with a downward gap, finding itself below the support level of the previous week (107.60) and due to triggering stops fell right to 107.05. This rate can become a strong support. The pair already consolidated there in the middle of the preceding month, besides RSI reached the oversell zone for a while.
AUD/USD
The weakness of the US dollar enabled the aussie to form a triple bottom, after which the pair easily managed to reach 0.8730. Of course, it is a considerable lag from the euro and the pound, but there is a feeling that closeness of a bottom both in the Aussie and gold will boost purchases, at least in the short term.
