EUR/usd
The employment statistics proved to less favourable than expected. The labour market created 209K of jobs instead of the expected 230. The private sector employment increased by 198K against the forecasted growth by 225K. The average earnings haven't grown against the previous month, which anyway hasn't posed an obstacle for growth of the annual rate from 1.9% to 2.0%. But still it is worse than the supposed acceleration to 2.2%. It seems that employers don't hurry to raise earnings despite the impressive increase in the number of jobs. Possibly, the reason is that there is a huge number of potential workers, who formally don't go to make up the economically active population. Anyway, the rows of jobseekers are reinforced by those whose hopes have revived. It follows from the unemployment growth from 6.1% to 6.2% in July. Note that unemployment grew together with the number of jobs, which rose above the trend rates. It happened due to growth of the participation rate from 62.8% to 62.9%. And this is a good sign of the market stabilization as the participation rate already doesn't threaten to hit fresh multi-year lows. Altogether the employment statistics, in our opinion, confirm that the labour market is developing at the same pace as for the recent half-year. Apparently, such rates go slightly beyond the Fed's expectations which promises that toughening of the monetary policy will be performed earlier than in 2015. So, don't pay attention to unemployment growth. Employment keeps growing and will soon inevitably affect inflation, first of all wage increases. As a result, despite the fact that we expect further correction of the dollar's rally, we don't think it will be long and steady.
GBP/USD
The cable almost disregarded the US employment stats. The unexpectedly poor Manufacturing PMI pushed gbpusd from 1.6870 down to 1.6820 on Friday. Note the sector remains quite active – the PMI remains at 55.4, which is very far from the EU rates – anyway, traders expected to see the rates remain at 57.2. As has been emphasized before, the economic expectations now look extremely high and the deviation of the actual rates from these very optimistic rates causes selling of the sterling.
USD/JPY
The correction of the US stock exchanges provoked similar correction in usdjpy. On Friday it didn't manage to catch hold of 103.00.The after-payroll volatility forced the pair sink to 102.30. But then systematic purchases of dollars for yens resumed, so this morning the pair reached 102.70. For advocates of technical analysis it is important that the pair remains above the 200-day MA (now 102.10). Above this level the pair has bullish prospects.
AUD/USD
Growth of the Australian retail sales surpassed the expectations, growing by 0.6% in June. Against the reading of July 2013 the growth makes 5.5% and this is acceleration from 4.9% a month ago. The indicator of job applications is also on the rise. In July it grew by 0.3% and by the same month a year ago – by 4.2%. It helped the aussie to get support at the beginning of trading against USD. But it is unlikely that the momentum will hold for the whole day as the dollar bulls are on the offensive.
