EUR/usd
The current week has been mostly quiet in Forex. This may become a good signal for those who's missing the market volatility on news about the US labour market. For more than two years the market has been generally moved by politicians' statements and changing sentiments over the monetary policy. But this time the market is quite phlegmatic about labour statistics. In general, it is very unlikely that there will be a sharp reversal of the trend to a slow recovery process in employment. The January unemployment rate is expected to remain at 8.5% with a 150K increase in the number of non-farm payrolls after 200K in December. Our expectations are a bit higher than the average ones. Here we are primarily guided by good data on the sub-indicators of manufacturing PMI from ISM. In addition, data on initial unemployment claims for the previous month proved at 375K which corresponds to the mid- 2008 figures. However, this does not imply the same level of employment – that time more than 7 mln people worked in the economy. The single currency, meanwhile, is ready to move in any direction. Earlier in the week the euro tried thrice to consolidate above 1.32. Certain attempts to rise to this level were taken yesterday as well. The euro reached the high of 1.3194 at the beginning of the day, then a few times tried to climb higher, but was pushed down. Now trading is carried out around 1.3150. As before, we expect a bearish scenario for the pair.
GBP/USD
Britain is now absolutely out of the market focus, repeating the movements after the major drivers, the euro and the dollar. However, yesterday's statistics from the country didn't let market participants draw any conclusions. The pound was gradually declining throughout the day. The data on the construction sector activity reflected a slowdown in growth, but still it was growth. The Construction PMI fell to 51.4 against 53.2 a month earlier. It's not too bad, but not impressive.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen almost completely stayed out of trading on Thursday and Friday morning, continuing to make minimal fluctuations around 76.20. People from Japan keep insisting that the current exchange rate of their currency is too high and reflects the “one-side trading”. On the other hand, the market is quite sure that the intervention at current levels is unlikely, because politicians are afraid to act more actively, unwilling to get sanctions for their exporters from the United States.
AUD/USD
The aussie was gradually falling all day yesterday and continued that trend today. However, the currency is unlikely to perform something more than just a correction in anticipation of important macroeconomic news. And it is to face the statistics on the U.S. labour market, on its own labour market next week and the decision on interest rates from RBA. The Bank will have to make a difficult choice between the slowdown of its local housing market and a not very “hard landing” of China's economy.
