EUR/usd
It's amazing that the news about the absence of draghi and other members of the governing board at the symposium in Jackson Hole should give so much help to the single currency. Anyway, there is a core of sense. Draghi is said to be busy drawing up a plan of Europe's bailout. But being honest, most of the time is of course spent on searching for the compromise and arguments in favour of further expanding of the ECB's balance sheet. It is very likely that Draghi and his followers are trying to persuade that it's not the best variant to reply on politicians in this matter. In this regard the CB has more room for maneuver as its members do not depend on the attitude of the electorate. The positive results of the Spanish auctions are also favourable for the single currency. The 3-month bond yields have sharply decreased as investors regarded the ECB's purchases of short-term securities as a settled thing. Yet, the Spanish banks still suffer. The summer months were quiet for the markets, but not for the banks. In July deposits declined by €74bln, which is twice as much as the previous monthly record. So we shouldn't be surprised if the statistics for August will be even worse. Over the year the volume of deposits has shrunk by 10.9%. The same was earlier observed in Greece. For Spain it means that the worst is still ahead. Apparently the Spanish government will have to call for help already before the end of the year. OK. Enough for bad news, let us pass over to the positive events in the market. The American stock exchanges don't want to fall, fully believing Bernanke's pledges to launch new incentives and seeing fomc's doves liven up. By the way, today the markets expect the second release of the US GDP in the second quarter (the revision up to 1.7% is expected) and pending home sales index which is forecasted to grow to 9.9%.
GBP/USD
The favourable state of affairs in the euro proved to be good for the British sterling. Yesterday the currency managed to recoup some of its morning losses and grow to 1.5835. And today the pair remains above 1.58, which means that the positions of bulls are still strong despite the country's troubles. Exactly this situation is now favourable for the pair. Since the beginning of the week we haven't seen any important news from Britain, neither will we see any today. And this gives us a chance to focus on the technical analysis. GBP/USD is bought on the dips also because it has managed to break through its 200-day MA. Besides, in weekly and monthly charts the pair is still far from being overbought. Even daily candles show that there is some space for maneuver. Look forward to seeing the pair above 1.59.
gold
Gold has started its autumn rally. As seen from the history of rates, the spring and summer months are usually the hardest for this precious metal, while in August it very often starts to grow. If we draw a line through the highest daily closing prices of September 5 ($1901) and February 28($1784), we'll see that its extension crosses the current rates. Probably, the bulls are working to consolidate above this support, though with a respite since they've been hovering around 1670 for four trading days already.
oil
As it seems, the tropical hurricane common for this time of the year in the USA won't be very violent this time. This also impacts the price of Oil, which despite the positive market dynamics and growing risk demand still looks more disposed to the decline. This situation is favourable for democrats, though republicans already now can appeal to the nearly record prices of petrol on the threshold of Labour Day (next Monday).
