EUR/usd
The Fed is preparing the markets for a more dramatic increase of interest rates from the beginning of toughening. Besides, Fed Chair, despite all vagueness of her comments, made it clear that the markets were underestimating closeness of rate increases. It can be treated as a promise of the first increase already in the first 3-4 months of the next year instead of the middle of the year as expected earlier. It seems that Janet yellen tried to imitate Greenspan, making obscure comments and leaving herself more space for maneuver. If she starts to imitate not only Greenspan's manner of wording, but also his actions, it will mean that rates will be raised at each meeting from the very beginning. In this case the dollar's behaviour may become pretty much the same as under Greenspan's rule, i.e. grow with confidence half a year before the cycle of increases starts and half a year afterwards. Of course, we have a small sample and too different conditions to make clear forecasts regarding this, but one thing is certain – the US dollar has a great advantage for growth and still bears the potential of further appreciation. Yesterday's growth of the dollar was especially obvious against those currencies where the monetary policy is different. The euro is one of them, so only at the beginning of the EU session it finally found some support. At the end of the US session eurusd dropped by over a figure from 1.2950 to 1.2830. The dollar index, in the meantime, is at the highest level since 2010, posing a threat to the wide flat of the recent years. But on the other hand, doesn't the dramatic change of Fed's policy against the ECB's intention to allocate money look like a sound reason to reconsider the views on the formed trading course of the currency?
GBP/USD
Yesterday the cable closed the gap, formed a week and a half ago. Here the growth potential exhausted itself. The perfect employment statistics in Britain couldn't change the situation. gbpusd was depreciating all through the day, managing to get support below 1.6250 only during the Asian session. And this is while the unemployment rate is at the lowest level for the last 6 years! Today we expect another portion of statistics for the country – retail sales, which are forecasted to grow by 0.4% m/m and 4.1%y/y. But it seems that the market is now ready to ignore good news here, while Scotland is voting for its future within the UK or as an independent state.
USD/JPY
Here the speculators found a new line of stops and gathered them yesterday under the pretext of reaction to fomc's comments. The pair easily grew to 108.80 despite the fact that it is obviously overbought. In this case this fact should be taken into consideration only after the beginning of consolidation. And it is not the time yet. Now selling can be compared to juggling axes: only pros can do it, and only for a while.
EUR/CHF
Today the SNB publishes minutes of its quarterly meeting on the monetary policy. Some commentators fear that the Bank can introduce negative interest rates following the ECB's policy easing earlier this month to escape heavy pressure on the pair. Yet, it is more likely that the policy will be kept unchanged, which can push EURCHF from 1.2110 to 1.2050/75.
