EUR/usd
The Fed's minutes showed that fomc is in a more peaceful mood than expected. As seen from the comments, published yesterday closer to the end of the US session, the Committee feared that changes in the comments would be taken in the wrong way by the market. As you remember, in September many expected that FOMC wouldn't mention that the rates would stay low for ‘a considerable time' any more. The forecasts contain fears that the slowdown of the global growth can affect the closeness of the US monetary policy tightening as slower growth results in the increased demand for the US currency. In its turn, it is a reason for inflation weakness and less rosy prospects for the production and agricultural sectors. However, it should be taken into account that such a cautious mood was based on the data, available on September 16-17. Then we didn't have the October employment statistics (+248k of new jobs), we had only data for September, which were a complete flop (+142, later revised up to 180). Thus, by the next meeting, whose results will be announced on October 29, FOMC should have more confident about the prospects of the national economy. Unfortunately, the prospects of the global economy are more vividly displayed by the IMF forecast, where the estimated growth rates for the next year have been cut from 4.0% to 3.8% and the growth rate in the current year is expected to make 3.3%. The dovish mood of the Fed proved to the market that FOMC is trying to avoid the mistake of the Great Depression, when the early rate increase caused serious decline in the economy. Due to this the dollar-bulls got a chance for locking in profits, which may continue for some more time.
GBP/USD
The pound also had its moment of glory, managing to grow from 1.6030 to 1.6160 for just an hour. By the present moment the pair has risen by 10 more pips. It is much more than the euro did after the release of the FOMC's meeting minutes. That is the result of the positive correlation of the British currency with the stock indices, which is again getting stronger due to higher expectations of policy tightening by the BOE.
USD/JPY
The yen has appreciated against the dollar, yet not as strong as it could. The pair has fallen below 108.0 today, however its decline is limited by growth of the demand for risky assets on a milder tone of FOMC. The result of testing 108, which is still going on actually, can predetermine the direction of the currency's movement for the coming days.
AUD/USD
The Australian employment puzzled many observers, when a month ago the employment growth by 121K was report. This rate is comparable to the employment growth in the USA right by 1.5bln. In this connection the statistical office revised its factors of seasonal adjustment and also revised its August rate to 32.1K. The fresh data showed unemployment decrease by 29.7K. Here it also should be mentioned that the decline happened due to the decrease of the part-time employed by 51.3K and increase in the full-time employed by 21.6K. Meanwhile, like in the USA there is an alert: the economic participation rate is falling. The aussie has grown to the highest level since September 24, 0.8880.
