EUR/usd
The single currency fell to 1.2662 yesterday, which is 5 points below the previous local minimum. These sales were caused by a number of reasons. First, data on annual estimates of GDP growth in Germany were released yesterday. Although they coincided with the forecast of growth by 3.0%, a more detailed statistical analysis has suggested that German GDP declined by about 0.2%in the fourth quarter. This signal is not a favourable one, as Germany was often the engine of growth. In addition, there came out the final data on Eurozone GDP for the third quarter. The statistics were unexpectedly revised lower. Now the quarterly increase is estimated at 0.1% (from 0.2% previously), and the GDP growth y/y makes only 1.3% against 1.6% estimated earlier. Judging by the poor German results, the eurozone economy may significantly sag in the fourth quarter, and additional cost-saving measures taken by the big Italy and Spain, to say nothing about Greece, may further worsen the data at the beginning of this year. Now not only weak southern countries are concerned about the economic growth. Monty and Merkel's meeting yesterday apart from fiscal consolidation was also focused on developing the strategy for job creation. Germany has much experience on this issue to share.
GBP/USD
The sterling behaved just in line with our yesterday's predictions. During the active trading in the UK the currency was sold out. Though the formal reason for taking the important support levels was not the internal news, but the unfavourable data from Continental Europe, the country's own poor statistics can't be completely ignored. The fact is that the pound has declined against the euro and that is clearly seen in the EUR/GBP pair. The trade deficit has exceeded everyone's expectations, making 8.6 billion against 7.9 billion a month earlier. The overall balance of trade, including services, has marked a deficit of 2.6 billion compared to 1.9 a month earlier. That is a bad signal for the country that is suffering from the weak domestic demand. In addition, it seems that the government is not going to spare the financial sector. Later today there will be the BOE's meeting held, which is not expected to bring about any alterations of the policy. But we should keep cautious. The sterling sank greatly yesterday and is trading in the 1.53-1.5330 corridor today. This narrow range can end in the sharp movement in this or that direction. But even in case of the upward local correction we'll tend to sell on the rise.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen is holding near 76.90 as yesterday, being not very volatile due to the uncertainty in the markets. On the one hand, the U.S. indices day after day close positive. The American economy is growing, which is positive for the U.S. indices and also indirectly beneficial for Asia. But as has been noted before, the direct correlation of markets and the dollar / yen is broken now. In addition, traders stay from buying due to the uncertain situation with the euro area, which makes a substantial portion of Japan's exports. In general, the positive sentiment in markets is likely to keep the dollar/yen from declining.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar is still trading below 1.03, holding one big figure from the 200-day moving average. The fact that the currency has been keeping below this important technical level for more than three months deters the bulls. But today there has appeared a slight hope that things could change. The issue is about gold quotes. The dynamics of this metal has a nice correlation with the aussie. Yesterday the precious metal rose to $ 1645.5 and managed to close above its 200-day moving average, which is sure to attract the attention of big players. With increasing uncertainty in the euro area and aggravating issues in Iran, gold is again acquiring the status of a safe-haven for capitals, already by now it has won back its lost positions since December. In the end, it may support the Australian currency.
