EUR/usd
The euro kept rising on Thursday. Since the start of the week it has already gone up to 1.2950 from the desperate 1.2620. In general, the positive sentiment was supported by well-bid auctions held in the countries enjoying a special interest of investors. Germany, Spain, France and EFSF as well were checking the market appetite for their securities. Demand proved high and yields – lower than during the similar auctions at the end of the year. But it would be really interesting to know what role the ECB played in these cases. Interestingly, the EUR/USD was moving up almost invariably, which is clear from the four-hour candlestick charts with almost all candles growing. As has already been mentioned, this scale of growth hasn't been caused by news releases, but is a mere reflection of the one-sided market, where euro sellers are in the majority. The technical analysis suggests that the upward movement may continue till 1.32; but it's still necessary to be careful, as sudden negative news from Europe may swiftly change the situation. Most likely, the euro will face the acid test of its ambitions to grow next week. However, some pairs, like the EUR/GBP and the EUR/AUD, may see the reversal in favour of the euro.
GBP/USD
Just like the euro the sterling also started to rise against the dollar on decreasing apprehensions over the European debt crisis. And in this case the British banking system is posed to low risk. Today markets will see data on retail sales in Britain. Economists are expecting a handsome gain of 0.6% m/m. If the forecasts prove to be true, the sterling will have reason to test the resistance level in its own downward corridor. The euro coped with its own resistance and now it is the sterling's turn. Given that stock markets in the U.S. and Asia closed positive, the pound has a chance to end today's trading with a small gain too. Closing the week above 1.55 may serve as a good signal for the markets to buy the currency.
USD/JPY
The dollar/yen didn't manage to resist the time-tested correlations for long. The increase in demand for risky assets despite the dollar weakening caused the USD/JPY growth. After dawdling around 76.70, last night the pair found its buyers and rushed to 77.30. Now it is above 77.10. In its turn this rendered a greater support to the Japanese stock exchanges during Friday's trading. For comparison, while S&P gained 0.35% the Japanese Nikkei went up by 1.3%.
AUD/USD
The situation with the Australian dollar arouses certain caution. Despite the general recovery in risk demand and the upward trend of gold, the aussie can hardly tear itself away from 1.04. The similar thing is now happening with the NZD/USD pair. These currencies enjoyed a good demand since mid-December on the stock market growth. Nevertheless, stock exchanges keep growing now, but the currencies have slowed down to take a breath. It is entirely possible that the reason lies in the policy easing sentiment prevailing in Asia today. Kiwi and Aussie are now trading near their 200-day moving averages, about 0.8 and 1.04 respectively. These levels are very important, that's why a strong movement in this or that direction can signal the beginning of at least a medium-term trend in the same direction.
