EUR/usd
The favourable economic data together with a series of positive corporate reports again draw investors' attention to the US assets. But if it looks like a true return to the traded ranges for stocks and increases the chances of hitting new highs in S&P 500, USD unfortunately can't boast any significant dynamics. eurusd doesn't have a reason even to go below 1.3800, sticking halfway. To convince the dollar-bulls in the earnest nature of intentions the week should be closed below 1.3700, which will completely make up for the growth in the previous week. But it is very unlikely as today the market won't be very liquid in connection with the coming Easter. Some markets will be closed on Monday as well, which can disorder the rates to some extent. Low liquidity at the time of high geopolitical risks may take a turn for sharp movements in this or that direction, which however we shouldn't bother about. As a rule, such movements are compensated by the opposite ones, beginning once big investors come back to the market or even earlier – in a few hours as it was at Christmas. On the one hand, advocates of the technical analysis still have one incomplete task – the gap between 1.3880 and 1.3860 is not closed yet. But on the other hand, the dollar is in demand due to the decrease in unemployment claims and the preceding strong data on the retail sales. Also we shouldn't forget about the pressure, put by the ECB's high officials. They are absolutely not interested in the expensive euro. And the fact that the debt market is recovering brings the periphery bond yields to more or less normal levels. To be more exact, to the levels, which look appropriate after the policy easing. As you remember, since the end of 2011 the ECB's general interest rate has decreased from 1.5% to 0.25%.
GBP/USD
The pair suffered profit-taking yesterday. After hitting the four-year high and in view of the long weekend, big market players decided to be careful. Even the positive performance of the stock exchanges didn't have any sufficient influence on the rates to overcome the trend for decline. So, the cable closed the day below 1.6800. Thus, since November 2009 the pair has never closed above this level. Yet, even then the highest closing level was 1.6817 and now 1.6877 is the closest high to the current level.
USD/JPY
The surprising convergence of the EU, the USA, Russia and Ukraine in Geneva spurred growth of the risk demand. But even without it earlier we spoke about the pair's ability to go up in the near future due to growth in the stock exchanges. Today and on Monday, however, the pair's advance can be stopped for a while because of the low activity in the markets.
AUD/USD
The aussie is gradually retreating, depreciating not only because of the news about decrease in the country's consumer activity, but also because of the decline in Gold prices. Though the correlation between AUSUSD and Gold is no longer that strong, it still can sometimes affect the rates, especially during the times of news vacuum. We still believe that it will be possible to reach 0.9100 in the coming days due to the recovery of the US dollar.
