EUR/usd
USD is still on the offensive, with the active phases of its growth falling on the EU and US sessions. On Friday evening the euro was falling under its own weight, triggering a wave of stop-orders. As a result, on Friday instead of the traditional consolidation we saw the biggest drop over the week. This week started with a downward gap below 1.31. If technical analysis is true, the descent will continue with the next probable stop at 1.3000/10. However, bears shouldn't hurry with staking for decline as close to 1.3070 there is the 200-day MA, which can turn out to be a real toughie. As we often mentioned, on the approach to this level it is important to pay attention to how this line is broken in one or the other direction. The powerful move down promises a continuous trend in this direction, while an unsure consolidation around this mark or even a bit lower can attract more bulls and consequently will give rise to growth. So, now we will abstain from comments what it is: a correction after a month's growth or a continuous wave of demand for USD. Today and tomorrow can turn out to be demonstrative in regard to dynamics. The main focus today will be on German statistics, where Ifo Business Climate index will be of special interest. It is forecasted to show slight growth resulting from more favourable expectations. Consumer Sentiment Indexes for Italy and Belgium are also worth noting, however they are hardly able to change the course of trading, while the German indexes can well do it.
GBP/USD
One of the reasons for weakness of the euro is seen in the renewed fears for the financial sector of Europe. These fears are concentrated around Cyprus, which is pleading to change the bailout conditions and is refused. This end-of-week negative regarding the euro zone dropped EURGBP below 0.85 for a while. However, opening of this week's trade was marked by a retracement above this level. Since the end of April the pair has been supported, despite the fact that Britain has enjoyed relatively favourable statistics. And it's all because of the expectations that the new head of the CB will start to eagerly ease the policy. In our opinion, it's quite a risky stake.
USD/JPY
The demand for the dollar helps usdjpy grow, returning to the levels set two weeks ago. Now trade is at 98.50. In our opinion, breaking through 99.0 is quite important here. If this happens, the next stop can be expected at a round mark of 100¥/$. Our measure of the currency rate index shows decline by 22% against the previous year. Approximately the same decline is seen in the nominal effective exchange rate of the yen against last year by the BOJ.
AUD/USD
The aussie keeps hitting new three-year lows. At present it is trading at 0.9160. The currency has broken out of the consolidation areas of 2011 and 2012 and now is almost in free fall. Probably, this can be stopped by a psychological level of 0.90, lower a similar level is only at 0.8760.
