EUR/usd
Lull in Forex is accompanied by across-the-board growth of stock exchanges. At the end of the previous week the single currency tried to continue its upsurge towards the yearly highs, but was stopped at 1.3700. The bears managed to go off these levels by 30pips and since then the currency has been trading mainly there. In the meantime corporations from around the world are accounting for their profits. They demonstrate quite good results, which together with the opening of the US government and fewer risks of the QE curtailment creates a favourable environment for purchases of risky assets. One more observation – carry-trade has almost disappeared from the markets. Logic is simple here. As opposed to the mid 2000s, growth of the US indicators doesn't arouse higher activity in other countries. So, we are again in the situation when performance of both the economies matters for the rate of the currency pair. It makes assessment of the market more complicated, but at the same time more objective and complete as in case of sharp changes in one of the countries it will help to smooth the impact. Thus, for instance, in eurusd the interest rate differential is against the euro. So, the ECB will toughen the policy much later than the USA. But this is a correct reflection of the economic situation in these two countries. Now the US dollar has suffered as traders ‘shifted' the date of the curtailment in the bond-buying programme. Anyway, in our opinion, the dollar's anti-rally shouldn't be long as the consumer sector feels quite good and it is once again proved by corporate reports. This week we expect a release of the stats which were not published because of the government shutdown. They should be very weak for the dollar to continue its decline. Here we see 1.3700 as a good level to sell at.
GBP/USD
On Friday the pound grew to 1.6230. Since the beginning of the last rally the pair managed to pass more than 3 figures from the lower bound of the channel, where consolidation took place. Friday's correction pushed the pair down to 1.6150, but now it seems that players are about to launch a new attack on the highs. As in case with the euro we find it possible that the pair will try to hit fresh yearly highs (1.6330) and slip down afterwards. Probably, Wednesday's release of the MPC meeting minutes will ‘help' the pound here.
USD/JPY
The end-of-the-week attack on the dollar had its effect on the yen as well. The pair fell to 97.50, after which it has been gradually attracting more and more buyers. Now trading is already held at 98.00 as strengthening of the markets is traditionally connected with selling of the Japanese currency. In addition, today's trade balance data failed to meet the expectations. Probably, it will lead to higher activity of the BOJ, which is sure to tell badly on the yen.
AUD/USD
Despite fires in the country, the Aussie is making its way up. Today it is already the ninth day of growth of the pair, which is now already trading at 0.9670. Regardless of the supposed fatigue of the rally, we don't exclude that the pair will grow by another figure or so, up to its 200-day MA, passing through 0.9750.
