EUR/usd
Yesterday the ECB purchased French BTFs, this way starting QE in its region. Of course, yesterday's fluctuations couldn't put any significant impact on the market, but they were quite able to change the mood of its participants. It didn't happen though. Traders were purchasing the single currency. They keep doing it now as well, hoping that these measures will contribute to quicker recovery of the eurozone. Since the beginning of 2013 the ECB's balance has been shrinking as banks were allowed to return loans, issued earlier within the LTRO programme. These returns have cut the CB balance by about a third, from 3bln to 2bln. Employing the measures , announced in September, the ECB is now striving to expand its balance as much as possible. But we also understand that if there aren't any positive shifts by the time when the balance is expanded to 3bln, draghi won't hesitate before launching further programmes of balance extension. However, let's return to closer trends. The Chinese GDP data, published this morning, proved to be not as bad as expected. The major factor, assessed by economists, – the economic growth for three quarters against the same period a year ago – made 7.3% against the expected 7.2%. It could be even worse, thus making the market wait with a fainting heart if the Chinese government will announce a new programme to support the economic growth in the country or not. In the meantime, the current economic growth rate is the lowest since the global financial crisis. Yet, it is slowing down expectedly and evenly. If we trust China's data, this process can be treated as soft lending. And these data are quite able to support the markets, including the single currency.
GBP/USD
gbpusd also continues its even ascent. The pair is getting good support from China's data, but apart from them it is supported by weakening of the bullish sentiment in the dollar. Though profits from its preceding growth are locked in without any strong movements, the process is accompanied by quite high volumes. The current situation suits both for purchasing the pair by short-term traders and selling it by long-term ones. Retail Forex traders should be very cautious at the current levels as correction may start all of a sudden.
USD/JPY
The pair is swinging following the stock markets. It means that the growth in the second half of the previous week and at the beginning of this one has been followed by another downward impulse. The fact that the pair is now far away from the important levels of support and resistance makes prediction of its next maneuvers difficult. On the whole, we need to keep an eye on the stock markets, as the latter can give a hint about the mood of traders in the pair.
AUD/USD
The aussie is showing with more and more confidence that it has formed a bottom near 0.8670. If it is not a false movement, bulls may launch an attack this week, aiming to move off the local lows. The potential of China's news hasn't been fully revealed in the movement of the AU currency today. The industrial production growth in the Celestial empire by 8.0% against the expected 7.5% speaks about increase in demand for the Australian iron ore and coal, which should strengthen the Aussie. Now audusd is trading close to 0.8800. If it manages to grow by another figure, we'll be able to speak about bulls' attempt to warm up the currency to 0.9200.
