EUR/usd
Thursday's stats on US employment contributed to strengthening of the US dollar. Yet, growth of the latter is least conspicuous against the pound, but against the euro and the yen the US currency has appreciated well enough. The dollar bulls want to depict the recent surrender of the 200-day MAs in eurusd and usdjpy as an occasional and short-term trip beyond the key levels. The main reason for this movement is perfect employment statistics. The employment has grown by 288K, in the private sector its increase has been also good – by 262K. As a result, the average semiannual growth totals 230K and 222K respectively. Such rates of employment growth should assure the Fed of the recovery steadiness, promising higher household spending and potential increase in inflation pressure. In theory the risk of inflation acceleration should make the Federal Reserve act promptly. Besides, the regulator must be dying to return its traditional reserve to ease the monetary policy, that is an opportunity to lower interest rates. But this is only in theory. In practice, despite the inflated commodity prices and obvious improvement in the housing market, the mortgage interest rates remain historically low. In addition, it can't be excluded that the Fed will be talked into decreasing the rates as it keeps bond yields low, thus easing the burden of government payments. The most favourable policy for the USA is keeping the rates low as long as it will help to maintain inflation expectations within the economically stable level. Though it is quite possible that the Fed may blink at it, if for a while the target inflation level is exceeded.
GBP/USD
Already on Thursday the cable almost completely recouped the losses suffered on the payrolls and on Friday it even hit a multiyear high. The pair rose as high as 1.7180. So bulls have plenty of work to do. It's hard to find the preceding highs, which could be close to it, as the pair whistled down those levels in the heat of the financial crisis, so technical analysts find it hard to indicate the most effective resistance levels. Yet, we should pay attention to 1.72, which was known as a good support in 2005/06. Probably, it will cool down bulls' ardour a bit.
USD/JPY
As has been mentioned above, bulls managed to take USDJPY back above its 200-day MA. It happened already on Wednesday and the data on the US employment additionally consolidated the positions above that key level and above 102 yen/dollar. Considering the movement inside the channel, the pair still has to rise to 102.70 and only there we can expect an interesting struggle for breaking out of the channel.
USD/CAD
The pair seems to have formed the base, off which it may head up. Firstly, we have reached the consolidation levels of the end of the previous year. Secondly, the downward movement has slowed down and the pair has left the oversell zone, which is a sign of possible correction in the near future.
