EUR/usd

Once again the single currency suffered pressure  in the morning. The low set at 1.3118 yesterday during the Asian session held for about a day. At the time of this writing the local low in the pair is 1.3111. The decline is accounted for by the expectations of the QE by the ECB this week. At least, by the expectations that clear parameters, size and the commencement date will be announced. It should be mentioned that these are very feeble expectations. So if they are not met, we may face a serious movement in the opposite direction. Lots of players staked on depreciation of the single currency, though reasons for that are not obvious at all. Earlier the euro was much less affected by the rate decrease than by the decrease in the potential of economic growth or changes in the prospects of the US monetary policy. Today there won't be much economic statistics. The EU producer prices in July will be released. It is a leading inflation indicator and it doesn't promise anything good regarding inflation pressure. Annually the prices fell by 0.8% in June and in July the decline is expected to reach -1.1%. As to the USA, today it expects the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Investors and traders will pay attention not only to the main index, but also to such components as inflation pressure and employment. Probably, they will help to define the trend of the employment and inflation indicators. Both these indicators are again as important as before, so the considerable deviation from the preceding rate or from the expectations are able to arouse violent reaction. Though we should remember that tomorrow there will be publication of more important data from ADP (to say nothing about Friday's payrolls) and on Thursday all attention will be riveted on the ECB's decision and draghi's further comments at the press-conference.

GBP/USD

Despite the fact that the cable keeps fllowing the uptrend in the recent days, but today it has fallen to the lower bound of this range. Bulls should be careful as breaking through the support may assure that a wider downtrend has resumed. Now trading is held at 1.6580 and falling below 1.6560 will indicate breaking of the trend for correction, then the last defensive front may be found at 1.6530. But we wouldn't recommend to rely on retention of the correction after breaking through 1.6560.  

USD/JPY

The dollar/yen is heading upwards. Yesterday the sentiment preserved and today during the Asian session dollar bulls probably hit the jackpot, triggering an avalanche of limit orders. The pair jumped from 104.30 to 104.80 for just a few hours. Our first target, mentioned yesterday, was reached quite quickly. But hitting of the second target (above 105.43) can be not so easy.

AUD/USD

The aussie has received a hard blow today. Already before the rate decision (it was kept unchanged at 2.5% as expected) the Australian dollar was actively sold out. The day started at 0.9330 and the current intraday low was 50 pips below. Traders were not reassured by the data on building permits which proved to be stronger than expected. In July the indicator grew by 2.5%, but the yearly growth slowed down from 17.6% to 9.4%.