USD: a step back

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The single currency feels quite confident. At least it is strong enough to get above 1.3600. Yet, it should be noted that the attempts to fray nerves of the 200-day MA haven’t been crowned with success. For now. On Thursday the pair got to 1.3642 and on Friday – to 1.3633 with the daily closure at 1.3600, just like now. And the 200-day MA has now risen to 1.3660 against 1.3630, when it tested that important technical level in May. The pair’s strength is mainly explained by certain disappointment of investors in the dollar. The Fed’s members don’t hurry with the more…

VIX lows, GBP highs

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The dollar was getting weaker all through the EU session yesterday. Only at 1.3640 bulls eased their pressure, taking their profits. The same situation was observed in the stock exchanges. Now the euro/dollar is trading at 1.36, thus promising a good week for bulls. They will hardly yield here without trying to attack the 200-day MA. All this depreciation of the dollar leads to decline in the VIX volatility index. Earlier we thought that the very approach of the index to its lows would be more than enough and the market wouldn’t go further, since we expected that volatility would grow more…

FOMC’s caution puts pressure on USD

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The mild Yellen has remained her own self. Against our expectations that FOMC would learn a lesson from the financial crisis and would choose another policy for the Fed, it treated the macroeconomic forecasts with great caution after the poor beginning of the year. The long-term GDP forecasts were slightly revised down. Though at the same time the spread between the rates increased, thus reflecting a more hawkish mood than earlier. The markets preferred not to focus on the last moment, seeing only caution regarding the future measures. The markets got quiet about the possible acceleration of tapering and approach of more…

Why the Fed should by tougher

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The US inflation stats came as an unpleasant surprise for the dollar-bears yesterday. It turned out that consumer prices in May grew by 0.4%, which is twice as much as expected. The annual inflation instead of staying at 2.0% grew to 2.1%. Of course, it is too early to speak about the radical change of the situation, however now the Fed surely has less space for maneuver. In accordance with the classic economic rules, increased consumer activity has led to faster price growth. Apparently, in the coming months we’ll see much of this. The seven meager years after the subprime mortgage more…

Abe’s third arrow

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Though the beginning of the day was far from good, the single currency nevertheless grew against the dollar in the course of the day. This morning a fresh tide of growth helped the pair go up to 1.3586. It is a bit above the high set at the end of the previous week, which speaks about bulls’ success in winning back their positions. Their morale should be boosted by the hints of different ECB’s officials at scanty chances of further steps from the Bank.  We hear hints that the ECB will resume bond purchasing to its balance sheet at the very more…