In anticipation of a pullback

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

On Monday the single currency was under a moderate pressure, caused by Draghi’s promise to ease the policy not only in case of weak inflation, but also if the euro remains expensive. It’s quite logical as growth of the rate ensures inflation slowdown in the future and it happens with a certain lag, leaving space for maneuver. The most important thing is to use it in good time. Anyway, the euro remains under pressure. Governor of the Bank of France Noyer said yesterday that the ECB is ready for easing if inflation stays low for too long. Such statements from the more…

Ready to retrace

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The euro/dollar keeps growing and has already risen close to 1.3900. The dollar demand has been less strong this week, which is partly a result of the lower interest in the US stocks and partly – of the realization that the ECB won’t move in the direction of new incentives, while the EU economy is improving. Regarding stocks, we can see the growing confidence of investors in the inevitability of a retracement in the near future. Besides, lately the core indexes feel difficulty with growth and are trading flat, while volatility indexes have declined to the levels, speaking about a possible more…

USD falls into a nosedive

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The risk demand showed up where no one expected it. We had thought that the meeting minutes would be tougher, but the reality proved to be quite different. FOMC is trying to move off Bernanke’s sharp limits which could become a guideline for the markets, when the Fed will raise the rate. Strictly speaking, it is not a sign of the extra-soft policy, but still doesn’t let us speak about its toughening. Thanks to it the US stock markets grew by more than a percent and the dollar got weaker across the board (except for the yen). EURUSD rose to 1.3870, more…

EUR grew due to ECB’s confidence in growth

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The plenty of speeches made by the EU officials yesterday were to the benefit of the single currency. The euro/dollar started growing after Ewald Nowotny had said that the ECB was also seriously considering  consequences of different ways to ease the monetary policy, but didn’t hurry to apply them. Yves Mersch also pointed out in his speech that the economic recovery in the EU was reducing deflation risks. Actually he said exactly the same thing as we had done before the ECB’s meeting last week (‘Don’t wait for Draghi to be mild’). We were mistaken only about the tone of the more…

Analysts against traders

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

More often it’s quite the opposite, but yesterday analysts gained the upper hand over traders. A couple of minutes before the release of the EU inflation statistics, the pair came under severe pressure. It tumbled down by 15 pips to 1.3745. Then it was reported about sharper inflation slowdown than expected and the euro/dollar dropped already to 1.3720. However, the impulsive reaction of traders (or were these robo traders, working on news?) to the weaker-than-expected data held just for a moment. Further the single currency got some support on the analysts’ comments that the slowdown from 0.7% y/y to 0.5% y/y more…