EUR/usd
Reduction in the Fed's asset purchases is more and more favoured by the fomc's members. Earlier we heard from Lockhart about readiness to reduce bond buying already this autumn. Yesterday we heard something of the kind from Evans, Chicago Fed president. This official, who in most cases takes up a dovish position, said that he expects faster economic growth in the second half year and that the Fed is likely to start to curtail its bond-buying round already this year. Just a few weeks ago such claims would have caused significant shifts in Forex, but now to counterbalance improvement in the USA Europe demonstrates some recovery as well. In this situation the market shows sluggish reaction to good news both from the USA and Europe. For example, the news that German factory orders grew by 3.8% in June and annually reached 4.3%, which hadn't been seen for almost two years (since August 2011), went almost unnoticed. However, soon we learnt about reduction of the US trade deficit to the lowest rate since 2009 against the background of shrinking oil imports, which had kept the volume of imports approximately at one and the same level since the middle of 2011. Over the same time exporters managed to increase shipments by 10%. It's hardly rebalancing as next month oil imports can be raised (it's not the first week that oil reserves are on the decline). It is not quite clear yet if America will manage to become a net exporter again or to significantly reduce the trade deficit. While there is job stagnation in real sectors, we can hardly hope for that.
GBP/USD
The British production grew by 1.1% in June. Manufacturing industries tried to make up for the previous lag and grew right by 1.9% over the same period. The annual growth rates since the beginning of 2011 proved to be positive. The British car market demonstrates an enviable performance, the annual sales growth here made 12.7% in June. Also later it became known that, according to NIESR's estimate, the GDP growth in Britain over three months, ending with July, totaled 0.7%, thus promising handsome growth in the second half year. Please note that, when presenting the inflationary report today, the BOE's head Carney may point out new targets of the Bank regarding the monetary policy, which can arouse some volatility in the sterling.
USD/JPY
The upward impulse of this pair yesterday was not long-lasting. Soon after the beginning of active trading in Europe, it again turned down. Naturally it tells badly on the quotes of the Japanese stocks. Now usdjpy is trading near 97.30 and breaking through the support at 97.0 will open the way to the lows at 95.0 and even at 94.0. And don't say that we haven't warned that trading of the pair within the corridor would be too easy.
NZD/USD
New Zealand has pushed employment up by 0.4% in the second quarter. Besides, economically active population is also on the rise, now being as high as 68% after the drop in the last quarter of 2012. In this connection we shouldn't be surprised at the unemployment rate, which has grown to 6.4% against the expected 6.3%. On the whole, the report didn't produce any significant impact on the Kiwi, but it's noteworthy that already on Monday it managed to cover the gap, formed after the weekend.
