EUR/usd
The dollar made at least a pause in its decline, when yesterday it failed to break above the eight-month lows in the index. Moreover, the dollar bulls even tried to attack, which spilt over into the drop of eurusd to 1.3650 at some point. By the end of the day a part of those losses had been recouped, but talks about fresh highs in the pair are no longer relevant. Anyway, to continue the reversal players need more certainty. This certainty may probably come from today's employment data. The payrolls, which have been detained for over two weeks, will be published today. They should be very favourable to make up for the slowdown in October, when the public sector and business have been clearly missing confidence due to the government shutdown. If so, the dollar may get support due to resumed speculations around the stimulus rollback by the Fed. If the stats are dreadful, it may support the US currency due to weakness of the markets and risk-aversion. In borderline cases it is quite possible that another tide of decline will occur. And though we believe that the US currency has a greater potential for growth from these levels, we still expect growth in EURUSD today with a possible attempt to retest 1.3700. But until the payrolls release let's abstain from active actions in Forex as the market may react too strongly to the first important statistics after the government shutdown. The important levels of support and resistance are now at 1.3650 and 1.3700, beyond which the movement may stumble over an avalanche of triggering stop orders, which will strengthen volatility.
GBP/USD
The British pound is less steady than the euro. Its behavior clearer displays fatigue from the previous rally. On Friday the high was set at 1.6220, on Monday it managed to rise only to 1.6180. Now the daily low is at 1.6120, which is also below the levels of the preceding days. Technically the pound will need a correction, but the release of moderate US employment statistics may contribute to the final attack on the dollar.
USD/JPY
As expected the yen is giving back the gains made last week. Despite the fact that stock markets are now retracing after the heavy growth, the yen, which is a funding currency for Asian traders, keeps being sold. The dollar now costs ¥98.30 and we believe that this upward trend in the pair will continue in the coming hours.
oil
Yesterday Oil received a hard blow. WTI Crude Oil price for the first time since July dropped below $100 per barrel and at some point hit the 200-day MA (98.70). It is going on together with the growth of the US inventories. Also we have messages that Saudi Arabia is building up crude production. Altogether these factors allow supposing the further decrease in oil prices against the background of unsteady demand growth in the developed countries. We still think that oil prices are very likely to fall to $90-93 per barrel already before the end of the year.
