EUR/usd
Just as we supposed in our yesterday's review, the US employment statistics, being close to the market expectations, haven't produced any influence on the recent trends. In other words, after a short consolidation the dollar has resumed retreating. At the beginning of the EU session today there was another attempt to attack 1.33, but it was repulsed at 1.3290. Already now the pair is trading in the area of its local highs. The latter in their turn are taking us closer to the levels observed last February. The pair's performance since the end of April has been diametrically opposite to what was seen before. If this goes on like this, it's quite possible that there will be another try to reach 1.36 this month. However, taking into account the sluggish summer market, it can be a difficult task. The only event that has the potential for such shifts is the Fed's meeting in June. Its results will be published on June 19, i.e. in a bit more than a week. To put USD under a higher pressure the MPC doves should be more eloquent, which will reduce stakes on the stimulus rollback. According to the survey, two thirds of economists are expecting that it will happen in October and other 35% believe that this action will be taken in December. Only 2.7% think that it will be done at the end of July. The December variant is the most probable in our opinion, as exactly during its December meetings the Fed usually takes serious decisions. Besides, by that time the US economy will have survived the summer slowdown, which has become traditional over the recent years. Thus, there's still some space for the dollar's decline.
GBP/USD
The British pound feels slightly worse than the euro. But we can forgive it as earlier the British pound was appreciating quicker than the single currency. An important support for gbpusd is now at 1.57, the level of the 200-day MA. It's quite possible that industrial production statistics will help to shift the situation in one or the other direction. The decline by 0.4% is expected here, though PMI released last week pointed at the possibility of growth this month.
USD/JPY
The Japanese CB no longer surprises by powerful statements and this puts pressure on usdjpy. Some said that the Bank would extend duration of fund-supplying operations. However, Kuroda doesn't hurry to do that, referring to already conspicuous signs of economic improvement and, apparently, fearing to create a vortex of unpredictable consequences.
AUD/USD
The comparative calm in the markets gave rise to further selling in the aussie. The Australian dollar is again at 0.94, having lost over half a figure due to the disappointing statistics on home loans, which in April grew by 0.8% instead of the expected 2.1%.
