EUR/usd
The euro tried, but failed to attack the dollar yesterday. The relatively good PMI stats for Germany and France didn't help the eurozone to surpass expectations in all indicators. Now the market has a great set of facts and statistics on big countries at its disposal, though special attention should be paid to small ones. Now Germany is the one to carry the overall performance of the eurozone. The Services PMI has grown to 55.4 in September instead of the expected slowdown from 54.9 to 54.6. In its turn it helped the Composite PMI grow against the rate of the previous month. It rose by 0.3 point and made 54.0. The only factor stirring concern is slowdown in Germany's production sector, whose growth now makes 50.3 which is a point below the expectations. Upon the whole the EU indicators are growing well, which eases the potential pressure on the euro, but still doesn't completely level its fundamental weakness against the dollar and British pound. Anyway, the EU currency still has a chance to surprise us with the healthy business rates. Today Ifo releases German statistics. Here economists expect slight decline of the rates in comparison with the preceding month. The major indicator is expected to fall down to 105.9, which corresponds to the levels of June 2013. It is not that little and then the economy felt quite good. This indicator pales only against the unsteady acceleration , which was observed from the end of the previous year till the first quarter of this one. It is slightly unusual in this situation that both the Current Assessment and Expectations should fall. And this apparently signals that the slowdown has only just begun. In the afternoon all attention will be riveted on the US new home sales. Analysts expect growth by 4.4%, which would mean the return to the above-the-medium rates since the beginning of the year.
GBP/USD
Despite slight confusion at the beginning of the EU session, the cable continued its steady ascent. Now the pair is trading around 1.6400. Observers suppose that it is inflow of money belonging to those investors who were concerned about the referendum of Scotland. Besides, the British currency has depreciated a lot recently. Thus, the portfolio rebalancing at the end of the month can benefit the British currency. The only obstacle can be posed by continuation of the dollar's rally. But we don't think it is possible till the end of the month.
USD/JPY
The pair remains within the narrow range, being too weak to continue growth because of the pressure put on the stock exchanges around the world. But in the meantime, though stock indices have shifted down, the yen hasn't yet gone through a full-fledged correction. We think it will be enough when the pair is pushed off to 107.30, at least for a while.
AUD/USD
AUD's attempts to reverse the trend yesterday proved to be futile. The pair suffered selling at the end of the day and hit a fresh low since February. During the Asian session today the aussie was in demand, but it is still a big question if it will find support during the EU and US sessions.
