EUR/usd
The euro bulls were very close to breaking through 1.31 yesterday. The uptrend in the euro can tell favourably on the demand for debt securities of the EU troubled countries. Another positive fact from the technical viewpoint is breaking through the 200-day MA, which happened last Thursday in the volatile session after draghi's speech. Besides, strengthening of the single currency goes in line with our opinion regarding Forex and its cycles. The fundamental data keep us from recommending to stake everything on buying the currency. First of all, we have a continuous uptrend of the US stock markets, which may start correcting at any moment (especially now, when corporations publish their reports). Then, the reason for the recent appreciation of the pair was another disappointment in the growth rate of the US economy. In the last two-three months the dollar has been growing only due to the hopes that the Fed may start to cut the volumes of asset purchases (QE3) before the end of the year. But here we should remember that the problems of the USA in 3-6 months become problems of the whole world and this means that depreciation of the dollar will eventually result in a bigger outflow of money into assets with higher returns. To sum it up, we believe that it's quite likely that the dollar will continue to decline soon, however we doubt that an attempt to consolidate above 1.40 will be successful.
GBP/USD
A small gleam of hope for growth in Britain. Yesterday's industrial production stats came out better than expected. The monthly growth rate made 1.0%. This somehow improves the picture with the British economy. Yet this positive news was offset by reduction of the visible trade balance. The total deficit with services excluded grew to £3.6bln, against the forecasted moderate increase from 2.5bln to 2.8bln.The visible trade balance made 9.4bln in February. Yesterday's growth of the sterling can be accounted for only by the general weakness of the dollar and hopes that increase in the industrial activity will support exports.
USD/JPY
The yen has stuck at 99. For two days in a row usdjpy has been consolidating around this mark since traders can't venture to attack the psychologically important level of 100. Taking into account the policy of active asset purchases to the BOJ's balance sheet, breaking through this level is just a matter of time.
AUD/USD
Yesterday once again we received evidence that the favourable statistics from China are particularly welcomed by aussie-traders. The news that the consumer inflation in China had shrunk from 3.2% to 2.1% in March helped audusd to attack 1.05. Today the pair hit a two-month high at 1.0516 on the report about the bigger than expected growth of imports in March. To Australia it promises to spill over into favourable statistics for the same month (will be released in a month).
