EUR/usd
The US employment report is considered to be one of the most unpredictable publications. The market consensus is generally built on the basis of a great data spread, and the actual data very often differ much from it. Deep down, the forecasts were rather congested and the actual data proved to be close to the average market expectations. The release showed that employment grew by 175K against the expected 167K. The same with employment change in the private sector- it proved to be 178K against the forecasted 175K. The data were good enough to believe in the normal pace of growth in the USA, but not enough to expect stimulus rollback in the near future. We've also paid attention to the fact that for three months in a row employment in manufacture has been on the decline. But what about rebalancing due to increases in exports? It seems that there won't be anything of the kind and the US economy will be again growing due to the services sector, as earlier in the 90s and 2000s. Anyway, for the dollar the report was moderately positive. It managed to recoup some of its losses. Now eurusd is a bit below 1.32, that is close to Friday's lows. Probably, Friday's payrolls will give rise to a new uptrend in the dollar. However, this hypothesis needs confirmation. While the pair is above 1.31, it's more likely that growth of the dollar is just a correction after the sharp decline. Last week traders got enough signals that the ECB doesn't hurry to further ease the policy, and also that the US economy isn't steady on its legs to survive toughening in the coming months.
GBP/USD
The British pound has moved away from the highs, reached on Thursday (1.5680), now trading at 1.55. Here the sterling is also being sold against the dollar on the positive mood of stock markets. It means that traders are sure that the Fed will continue the economic stimulus, but at the same time are content with the US economic growth. Upon the whole, this situation is not characteristic of the markets, as the US growth quickly spreads far and wide, while the US currency starts depreciating against the majority of its rivals. Thus, this situation will hardly last for long. After all, the market will either sell the dollar or sell risky assets, buying USD.
USD/JPY
The yen's strength, we observed in the second half of the previous week, was not long-lasting. Even before the release of the US employment statistics usdjpy started to reverse and the publication of the report only intensified the trend. Now the pair is at 98.40 after a short plunge below 95 on Friday. It's quite possible that purchases will continue and bulls will try to push the yen back above 100.
AUD/USD
Australia's dependence on China is not always favourable. At the weekend there were much statistics from Celestial Empire, but they left a taste of disappointment after themselves. It's bad for the aussie that China has cut imports and that exports are growing not so well as expected. It causes slowdown in commodity shipments from Australia. On Monday AUDUSD hit fresh lows, going as low as 0.94. May remind you that in 2011 the pair reached 0.9387 and before that it had been at similar levels only in September 2010.
