EUR/usd
But for comments of Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, the single currency would have continued to slip down yesterday. His words that the current policy of the ECB poses a threat to the monetary policy of the region have triggered a short rally in eurusd. From the daily low of 1.2990, hit at the beginning of trades in Europe, the pair grew to 1.3074. However, this mini-rally proved to be short-lived. Very soon eager selling brought the pair back to 1.3020. Actually, all these moves are trifle ones, but there is one fundamental moment. Today we will probably see breaking of the downward channel, which will open the floodgates for the continuous growth. Or it's also possible that the pair will be pushed down with the downtrend consequently preserved. In our opinion, Friday's favourable statistics on the US employment and the clearly hawkish mood of Weidmann give grounds to purchase the pair. The risks are still carried by Italy an Cyprus, which may quite unpredictably crush the markets, or may not do that. At such a crossroads it's better to be on the alert. Overlooking the unpredictability of human decisions we may notice that the pair is getting visible support at 1.30. From the very beginning of March it hasn't been below 1.2975 for long. It's a good signal. But here is another one: all attempts of the single currency to grow eventually end in selling. But we still believe that the bulls are a bit stronger now. The bonds of the troubled countries are in quite a good demand at the moment, which is seen in the decline of the short-term Spanish bond yields. This fact must support the pair.
GBP/USD
The UK industrial sector performed even worse than expected. Instead of the forecasted growth by 0.1%, due to the bad weather the industrial production has shrank by 1.2%. The yearly rate of the decline makes 2.9%. The manufacturing sector feels even worse, having lost 1.5% right away. In such circumstances hardly anyone has paid attention to reduction of the trade deficit. To be honest, here we also don't have many reasons for joy. The deficit has declined from £8.74bln to £8.20bln only because imports fell from 34bln to 32,6 and exports – just from 25.3 to 24.4bln. Decline of the purchasing power of the pound is the reverse side of the currency's devaluation. It's hardly the target officials pursued, advocating a weaker sterling.
USD/JPY
Correction in the yen is gathering pace. The initial surge of selling in usdjpy was provoked by the news that the candidacy of one of the two vice-presidents of the BOJ could fail to get support. Anyway, the current reaction (decline from 96.70 to 95.50) is a bit stronger than the potential of the news. Simply the yen-bears are taking their profits after hitting fresh multiyear lows, in the anticipation that the new head of the BOJ won't have an opportunity to act as actively as was expected by many investors.
oil
Oil is again appreciating. Those, who followed our advice last week and quitted the short-term selling strategy, must be quite content now. The black gold is back again at $93 per barrel of WTI. It was here at the end of February. The 200-day MA proved to be a good support. Let's wait for retracement to $95.
