EUR/usd
Greece hasn't received any money. Of course, yesterday's meeting of the EU finance ministers didn't solve all the problems with a wave of a magic wand. And no one had really expected that, so the market reaction was rather reserved. The single currency hit new lows this morning. At night the pair sank down to 1.2675. Looking from a broader perspective, we see that eurusd is moving along the lower bound of the downward channel. It's noteworthy that the bounces here are getting weaker and shorter. This sale is very likely to get stronger, as we risk stumbling over the wave of triggering stops. But this run of things can be expected only after the break through 1.26. Thus, this week Greece will have to arrange bond placement in the open market. The market will be watching its results carefully since the event threatens to be very unfavourable for the euro (quite likely, already this week). In the meantime the USA is actively getting ready for the confrontation between the parties over the fiscal cliff. Yes, this is preparation for the confrontation, nothing about a compromise. Obama suggested preserving tax deductions and exemptions for the middle class, where the disagreement between the parties is not that sharp. The Congress will discuss it today. The democrats and republicans in their turn said that they were not going to change their basic views on taxing the rich (the republicans are against the increase) or the poor (the democrats oppose cutting tax benefits for the poor strata of society).Now it seems that EURUSD will be able to grow only due to the general concerns over the consequences of the fiscal cliff rather than because of improvement in Europe (as it was in August 2011). However, now it's too early to speak about that. The situation is far from its climax and it means that the dollar may benefit from the demand for liquid assets.
GBP/USD
This day is important for the sterling. The inflation statistics, published today, have proved to be better than expected both for producer and consumer prices. For a good while the markets haven't reacted to these statistics, as without them much has been clear: QE is to be extended as the economy suffers recession and lending doesn't recover. In the third quarter the economy has grown by 1%, the number of the issued mortgages is growing and inflation is also on the rise (CPI has gone up from 2.2% to 2.7% y/y). The Input PPI instead of the expected drop by 0.4% has risen by the same figure. The sterling has appreciated on the speculations around the news that the BA will have to delay QE extension for a while.
USD/JPY
The uncertainty of politicians and their unwillingness to compromise push the economy to an abyss not only in Europe and the USA. The same can be observed in Japan. Today Noda has announced his intention to dissolve the lower house of Parliament. Noda's coalition has collapsed when discussing the fiscal policy (tax increase to fill in holes in the budget). The yen-traders don't know how to react to this bunch of news yet. The reigning uncertainty makes them stand aside.
AUD/USD
The same uncertainty played into the hands of the aussie-bears. The Australian dollar is still quite popular with traders in many crosses, though against USD the currency has left the area of local highs at 1.0440. Now trading has got balanced at 1.04.
