EUR/usd
The bulls finally broke through 1.35 yesterday and pushed the pair up by almost a figure. Already at the end of the New York session there were bold attempts to break through 1.36, but it wasn't that easy. Today the pair feels like correcting the preceding growth, now being at 1.3550. The market participants seem to be indifferent to the economic news. Neither the favourable report on the US employment by ADP nor the dreadful GDP statistics put an end to the uptrend. First, there was good news from Europe – the consumer sentiment and business confidence got better. The index grew to 89.2, which is the highest rate since last June. This fact actually raises the hope that the slowdown in the business activity won't be as long as was expected earlier. The ADP employment data surpassed the expectations. The job growth made 192 against the forecasted 164. But here it's important to note that the preceding rate was revised down from 215 to 185. Meanwhile, the GDP stats proved to be really disappointing. The initial estimate of the index rate in 4Q showed a decline of 0.1% q/q. This is the first negative rate since 2009. However, this seems to be of concern only to the stock exchanges, and even they are not very worried: S&P 500 has slightly corrected from overbought readings. The single currency keeps appreciating as evenly as before. All this explains why the Fed's policy was so soft at the end of the year. In such circumstances extension of economic stimulation by Bernanke and Co. doesn't look as manna from heaven.
GBP/USD
The end of the month seems to be favourable for the sterling. It's been in disgrace for the whole January, but by its end has come to look better than its counterparts, all thanks to the profit-squeeze. Now gbpusd is at 1.5820, which is the daily level of last Friday. But here it receives strong resistance, which on January 21-24 served as support. So it won't be easy to jump higher. EURGBP also faces profit-taking. After hitting 0.8600 yesterday, the pair has dropped to 0.8560 today.
USD/CAD
The US dollar coupled with its Canadian counterpart seems to have touched the bottom. usdcad failed to go below the parity at the beginning of the week. Now players are again geared to buy. As opposed to the situation with eurusd, here the growth can be explained by the tendency to sell risky assets on the signs of crisis, even if this crisis comes from the USA. If the US economy feels bad, export-oriented Canada will also suffer.
AUD/USD
Just like the canadian dollar, the aussie has troubles due to poor stats from the USA. Recession in the world's largest economy threatens to develop into slump in exports of raw materials from the country, lead to deflation and the general deterioration in the economy. At present the consensus-forecast promises that the rates will be kept unchanged, i.e. if the recession really occurs, Forex will be very volatile. The pair is now trading at 1.0390, but it's quite possible that it will drop to 1.03 (the 200-day MA level) before the end of the week.
