EUR/usd
On Friday the euro broke through the bounds of the 2-week range – this was a big step, but now the currency again prefers to sit it out. Trading is again held in the narrow channel, mainly around 1.3450. Undoubtedly, the bulls are getting ready to attack 1.35, but don't feel strong enough for that at the moment. Psychologically, it would be much easier if it happened together with breaking through 1500 in S&P 500. The attempts of such a simultaneous attack were observed yesterday. However, the stock bulls felt tired after the 8-day rally and decided to have some rest. The index itself is gradually approaching the overbuy zone. Last week we noted that bulls found it more and more difficult to reach every new high, since then we've been very cautious about our forecasts here. The situation is still stable, and there's no need in taking short positions. However, buying should be also done with caution now. The potential profit of such purchases is already lower than the potential loss that can be inflicted by a sudden correction. The news from the USA is no longer so obviously positive as a few weeks ago. The housing market, which had stumbled over the new home sales on Friday, didn't bring any good news on the index of pending home sales yesterday either. The latter shed 4.3% in December and annually grew just by 4.9% against the expected 11.5%. The volatility is growing in the sector. Apparently, Americans are again put off by the price growth, observed since autumn and want to take a breather.
GBP/USD
The euro's and franc's steadiness against the dollar is rather an exception than a rule these days. Most other currencies are depreciating against USD and here the pound is one of the weakest. It is still in the downtrend and yesterday dropped to 1.57. Please note that in the first trading hours of this year the pair was above 1.63. GBPCHF is trading at its 9-month lows, EURGBP – at the 13-month high and this is a breakneck growth of 6.2% just for a month. Even against the yen there hasn't been any visible growth in January, just fluctuations between 140 and 144. gbpusd is at risk of moving on the same vigourous scale as in April 2012, when the pair slipped from 1.63 down to 1.53. As we mentioned on Jan 17 it's quite possible that the pair will even drop down to 1.50.
USD/JPY
It would be reasonable to keep aloof from the yen now. There are signs that the pair is again in the profit-squeeze phase, consolidating below 91. Last night it dropped down to 90.40, but the bulls again pushed it closer to 90.80. Altogether it makes up a series of descending highs and lows, thus promising another downward impulse at the beginning of the week, just as it happened in the previous three weeks.
AUD/USD
Despite quite a neutral background, the AU dollar was subjected to heavy selling pressure yesterday. The bears made the aussie fall below 1.04 for a while. Now the New Year gap is completely covered. It somewhat supported the Aussie, which has bounced to 1.0450 for no particular reason this morning. It should be borne in mind that the currency has been trading above its 200-day MA for more than 2 months, though it still cannot boast hitting new highs.
