EUR/usd
The single currency doesn't feel like growing, which increases the risk that it will be pushed down. The European summit demonstrated an unexpectedly strong resistance of the UK to the closer European integration. Before the Summit the mass media and politicians had been building up a stir over it, calling this event crucial for the euro. But as always the miracle did not happen. Though there were some positive shifts. The European central banks have agreed to grant the IMF loans, which may eventually be spent to rescue the troubled countries. Yet it circumvents the law according to which the supranational European Central Bank is forbidden to finance any particular government. Europe can allocate about 200 billion euros to help out the troubled countries. But such a step has been taken with the hope that other countries will follow their example and increase their financing of the IMF. From the technical perspective the eurusd is now in a very interesting situation. The pair is in the apex of the triangle: between the uptrend of this year and the downtrend of the end of October. It means that very soon we will witness a very interesting resolution of the existing situation. It is difficult to determine the probable direction of the movement as currently markets are reacting rather to the politicians' comments than to the economic data.
GBP/USD
sterling remains nailed to 1.5630. It has been trading in flat over the last two weeks. The GBP / USD has found a quick sale on the rise above 1.57, but yet it is getting more and more support below 1.56. As we've described earlier, easing of the terms on dollar swap lines has played its role, supporting buying of the pair. But on the other hand, the uncertainty of the situation in Europe and slowdown of economies in the region at the end of the year are playing against the demand for risk. The weeks before Christmas are expected to be very interesting.
USD/JPY
This pair, like most other currencies in Forex, is stuck in limbo without any movements in either direction. Thursday's attempts to drop below 77.60 have faced a wave of purchases. But current circumstances can't trigger the further growth. The world's stocks are growing only to fall later. But the fact that the pair has managed to remain unchanged despite a 3.5% decrease of the MSCI gives a reason to speak about the resistance of the pair to the drawdown of the stocks.
AUD/USD
As has already been mentioned, the Australian dollar remains very volatile. After the downfall on Thursday and Friday aussie managed to go above 1.2 by the end of the week. Thus, the pair returned to the old corridor. But already on Monday reductions of prices on metals, including gold, have pressed the Australian currency rate, bringing it down to 1.0140. Yet the fact that Aussie has faced such a great sale after attempts to go above 1.03 indicates the strength of bears. So it's very likely that we will see the currency correction toward the parity on expectations of further easing of the RBA policy and slowdown of China.
