EUR/usd
The bears are trying to grab the markets in their paws. Yesterday the common currency didn't have even a single chance to test 1.3140. The market reversed at 1.3125. Yet, it doesn't change anything now. As has already been mentioned, the recent sharp upsurge from time to time stumbled upon the short-term selling, after which players again started buying the single currency. But this time the decline is smoother and there isn't any sound reason on the euro's side. Now it's all about the dollar. The latter started appreciating in many asset classes. And largely it is a result of the decreasing market optimism. The strongest influence on the markets was produced by ADP's employment report, which wasn't very promising. It says that the US private sector grew by 118K against 157K a month before and against the expected 129K. However, let's look at this from a different perspective. If ADP's revised calculation formula is correct, the official BLS figure of 171K correlates with ADP's 157. Thus we get that the official data may show growth by 130K. The current forecast is 91K, so yesterday's report is not that poor as it seems at first glance. Also, yesterday's release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was quite favourable. It grew from 54.2 to 54.7. The figures are not the best ones, especially when compared with the previous year, but still they give us grounds to speak about growth of economic activity in the sector, providing the biggest contribution to GDP. The only confusing thing is the drop of the employment component from 54.8 to 50.3, but there's no clear correlation with this month's unemployment statistics.
GBP/USD
Yesterday the pound failed to hit new local highs, staying above Tuesday's 1.6230. Anyway, this saved the sterling from the heavy selling on Wednesday. gbpusd dropped a bit below 1.61 and is now trading at 1.6090. From the technical viewpoint, it's better to keep away from this pair now, as there are no clear signals to buy or sell. It would be more reasonable to place orders somewhere outside the trading range of the recent days, i.e. below 1.6080 and above 1.6120. Turning to the fundamental side of the picture, yesterday's speech of Chancellor of the Exchequer didn't contain any sharp comments, which was favourable for the sterling. This is because it is still believed necessary to cut the corporate rate and allocate money (albeit not very big) on stimulation of exports and small business in general.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen was depreciating against the dollar despite the worsening of the market sentiment. It's getting clearer and clearer that the market players don't treat the yen as a safe haven when risks are low. Yet, when risks are high again, the yen may arouse new interest, since Japan is a net capital exporter. Anyway, in the absence of cataclysms, usdjpy may retest 82.70. All the attempts to get higher in the previous two weeks failed.
AUD/USD
Australia demonstrates a good performance in the unemployment market. However, it wasn't enough to inspire the markets yesterday. The market players are planning to sell the aussie, and for that reason have shut their eyes to the unemployment decrease from 5.4% to 5.2% in November and to the employment growth right by 13.9K against the expected 0.2. The initial impulse of AUD to grow turned into the continuation of the systematic selling, which was running all through the day yesterday.
