EUR/usd
The European CB and a bit earlier the Bank of England contributed to decline of their domestic currencies by 0.9 and 1.3%, respectively. The differences in the economic situations of these countries made the heads of these CBs accentuate the differences of their policy and that of the USA, which is about to negotiate the stimulus rollback. Thus, at yesterday's press-conference draghi put a special stress on the phrase that “the key ECB interest rates would remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time”. Just two press-conferences ago he said that the Bank “never pre-commited”. It was enough to shift eurusd by a figure down from the area close to 1.30 to 1.29. Further there was consolidation in the narrow range caused by low volume trading because of the holiday in the USA. Payrolls are on the agenda today – the event which was earlier regarded as the only one to provoke sharp fluctuations. According to the forecasts made at the beginning of this week, unemployment in the USA may grow by 160K against 175K a month ago. The private sector is expected to show growth by 175K ( the government is still shedding jobs), but the data released by ADP on Wednesday showed bigger figures, 188K, which allows expecting more from the official data. Such news could put pressure on EURUSD if there hadn't been a rally against the euro yesterday. Now we think that the potential for decline will be very limited today. Technically, the pair has more chances for growth in case employment statistics fall short of expectations.
GBP/USD
Mark Carney's appearance at the BOE's helm was marked by the release of the commentary on the MPC's decision, which usually takes place only if some parameters change. The commentary says that now the market expects that the rates will be raised sooner than predicted by fundamental factors. The committee here refers to growth of bond yields lately. Of course, when dealing with the CBs' comments you should be able to read between the lines. Actually, the British bond yields grew following the yields of the US bonds. And the MPC's commentary should be understood as a warning that the BOE wants to press along the yield curve. Since it's the first time words will be enough for that, but soon definite actions will be required. gbpusd is below 1.5040, that is by 40 pips above the key support level.
USD/JPY
There's no important news from Japan, except for the new attempts of the yen to go down. Last night the level of 100 in usdjpy was broken again. This time the pair has more chances to continue growing as this week there has already been profit-taking on breaking through the key level.
AUD/USD
Yesterday's suffering of the EU currencies was not an obstacle for the aussie's recovery. Partly it was due to the comments of Lowe, who said that the statement of Glenn Stevens (“the Committee deliberated for a very long time” before taking the decision on keeping the rate unchanged) should have been taken as a joke. Investment banks called back their forecasts of the coming rate cut and traders revised their positions.
