EUR/usd
The single currency was under a heavy pressure of markets yesterday, which pushed it down to 1.25. However, being again supported by the markets, the euro didn't fall below this mark. It seemed that traders postponed the attack of the important levels for today or tomorrow. Later the single currency managed to consolidate success on the news leak from the ECB. The news that two ECB's officials unveiled the details of draghi's plan let the single currency consolidate solidly above 1.25. The details are as follows: the asset purchase programme will be unlimited, however liquidity injecting will be sterilized. The Bank has already practiced sterilized liquidity injections. The economic explanation is as follows: this measure is meant to eliminate inflation risks. From the ethical point of view, it will allow the ECB to avoid the potential criticism for the monetization of the troubled countries' debts. This news should be definitely favourable for the single currency, even despite the expectation of the interest rate cut by 25 bp. This morning the single currency kept growing. The pair is trading at 1.2620, which is the area of two-month highs and close to the upper boundary of our upward channel. If Draghi meets everyone's expectations today, there is a good chance that the pair will continue growing and reach 1.30 within a week or two. The further growth will hardly be without retracements, anyway it's quite possible that the pair will reach the level of 1.40 by December. There is also an alternative scenario: the news is a canard, the plan will be absolutely different and disappoint the markets, tomorrow the US employment statistics will be perfect and as a result will make the dollar stronger, the upward channel will be broken and the single currency will drop below 1.15 by the end of the year.
GBP/USD
The sterling also cheered up on the news about the euro yesterday. The British currency grew to 1. 5930, though the daily low, set four hours before, made 1.5825. The pound likes round figures, like 1.60. It's quite likely that the pair will try to get to this mark this week. Today we will hear the decision on the interest rate and the size of the QE programme. We don't expect any changes here, as the current programme isn't over yet, so the sterling will be moved mainly by the general market sentiments. As now investors are more optimistic about the single currency, EUR/GBP is gradually growing, leaving behind the lows of July and August and trading above 0.79.
AUD/USD
The growth of risk demand was equally favourable for the aussie. Today's employment statistics in theory could be the reason for the return of AUD/USD above 1.02. The released data showed that unemployment reduced from 5.2% to 5.1%, though it was expected that the index would grow to 5.3%. It happened due to the reduction in the number of the employed. The participation rate fell from 65% down to 65.2%. This is the lowest level for the recent five years. The employment volume shrank by 8.8K, though only as a result of the decrease in the part-time employment, which made 9.3K. The full-time employees are now by 0.6K greater in number.
EUR/CHF
A year after being pegged to the euro, EUR/CHF seems to have come back to life. For the last two days the pair has been trading relatively far from 1.20. We can find a few reasons for this. First, the sudden drop of the GDP in the second quarter and the radical revision of the figures for the first quarter have significantly corrected the picture of the economic growth. Then, we should also mention deflation, which persists despite the hard pegging to the euro, liquidity flood caused by the massive sell-offs by SNB and a poor state of affairs in production. Besides, there are positive swaps for a long position. As a result, you get quite sound grounds to think that the Bank may consider a higher level of the floor for EUR/CHF.
