EUR/usd
The sudden and ungrounded surge of European currencies (EUR, GBP, CHF) against the dollar should be treated as nothing more than ousting of bears from the market. It can be also called the last-ditch fight of the bulls, who summoned all strength to reverse the situation. But as practice shows, very often yesterday's bulls turn out to be tomorrow's bears, so these are the same big players, gaining liquidity for further attacks. Why are we so sure? The thing is that there was no reason for purchasing the euro. The only important event in Europe yesterday was the release of German employment statistics. However, selling of the dollar started at the very beginning of the EU session and went on even after the release of Germany's statistics. According to all rules, the release was to cool the bulls' ardour as the number of the unemployed increased. The increase made 21K against the expected 5K. Thus, there is no improvement in Germany, on the contrary we observe a faster growth of unemployment. Over the last 12 months the increase on average made 7K and the decline was reported only in January. For this reason, the rise of business sentiment indices looks perplexing. Anyway, eurusd once again will try to catch hold of 1.30. Remember that 1.3015 is where the 200-day MA currently is, so breaking through it may have a strong influence on the currency's prospects. We still stick to the opinion that bears have loosened their grip for a while to kick unnecessary players out of the game, and the main trend remains descending.
GBP/USD
Just like the euro the British pound took advantage of the dollar's weakness. The bulls managed not only to defend 1.50 which the pair approached yesterday, but also to reach 1.5170 – the weekly high. The lull in the British statistics still continues, so the main focus is now on the news from the USA. Today's agenda includes the release of the second GDP estimate in the first quarter. It is not expected to be revised from the annual rate of 2.5%. Fear the sharp reversal in the currency markets.
USD/JPY
Even the beaten yen benefits from the retracement of the dollar. usdjpy fell to 100.60, which is the three-week low. We also can't exclude that on the tide of selling in the US currency, the pair will manage to drop below 100. The good level of support is the former resistance at 99.90.
AUD/USD
The aussie returned to the area of weekly highs, again trying to get hold of 0.97. These attempts may prove to be successful, but the country's statistics still make you be cautious. The first three months of this year were the second quarter of decline in private capital spending. But there's also good news. The rate cut spurred activity in the construction sector. In April the number of building permits was by 9.1% bigger than in March and by 27.3% – than the rate reported in April 2012.
