EUR/usd
The European currencies are not going to yield without a struggle. Last night both the euro and the pound were doing well against the dollar, but for different reasons. Let's have a closer look at them. At first sight it looks really surprising that amid the growing fuss about the possible rate cut by the ECB next week and also almost right after the release of disappointing statistics on the business activity (PMI, ZEW, Ifo) the euro is able to demonstrate growth. However, it should be taken into account that the rate cut by another quarter of a percent will hardly boost lending. The main problem with lending in the region consists not in too high interest rates, but in the lenders' doubts about solvency of the borrowers. These doubts can be fought down only with the help of stronger perspectives of economic growth. Besides, we can hardly expect that Germany will sharply change its policy regarding the interest rates. Most likely, next week we will hear only a clear hint at reduction in June. Investors and traders could breath with relief yesterday evening when they learnt that the Italian president suggested Enrico Letta forming a new government. Now it is hoped that the period of political uncertainty, which was lasting for almost two months in the country, finally came to its end. Anyway, we still believe that the euro will continue to depreciate. A small sigh of relief is not the end of all misfortunes. Be afraid of the negative revision of the official outlook for Germany.
GBP/USD
Today is an important day for the British pound, as it will have to face the release of the Preliminary GDP statistics. The consensus of economists as well as NIESR promise economic growth of 0.1% in the first quarter of the current year. But even if this unimpressive forecast becomes a reality, the sterling will possibly continue to grow, as many really fear disappointments in the country's economic growth. This morning due to the depreciation of the dollar and renewed demand for risk during the Asian session, gbpusd grew above 1.5330. Also, for four days in a row the pound has been growing against the franc and the euro.
USD/JPY
usdjpy doesn't feel like retracing below 99, yet there are no reasons for the move above 100. Probably, they will appear tomorrow after another monetary policy meeting of the BOJ. Now the chart clearly shows formation of the triangle with the horizontal resistance at 100 and the ascending support line. Usually such figures result in an upsurge, if only they are not formed on large time intervals.
AUD/USD
When aussie-traders can't find reasons for buying inside the country, they start searching for them outside. Now it may be recovery of gold prices (by now over $100 has already been recouped). Or it may be strong economic growth in Southern Korea, which spurs demand for risks in the Asian markets. But this way or another, the level of 1.02 in AUDUSD stood its ground and now the pair keeps going farther from it, being already 1.03. The next target may be at 1.0350.
