EUR/usd
Just yesterday we pointed out that decline of stock exchanges was caused by lack of interest in the dollar, but already today we see quite a different picture, though at the limited scale. The senators' hint at the possible conclusion of the fiscal deal on Tuesday made stock exchanges grow – the S&P 500 futures exceeded 1700 pips – yet the single currency was falling only during the US session, when indices were growing intensely. Later, when the general positive mood spread to other markets, eurusd set off in the upward direction. Now trading is held at 1.3570, which 20 pips above the daily low. Yet, from the technical viewpoint the level of 1.3600 remains a serious obstacle, which the pair has been unable to overcome for three weeks already. And we think that the pair will hardly manage to consolidate above it. Despite yesterday's favourable industrial production statistics for the eurozone, which indicated growth by 0.1% in August, against the previous year the decline has accelerated, as the index at 2.1% is below the levels of August 2012. Today the euro will have to undergo another important test on the release of ZEW Economic Sentiment, which has been at the highs for almost four years. The consensus forecast supposes a correction of the index from 49.6 to 49.2, but should the decline be deeper, the single currency will suffer a lot. Actually, there's nothing more about the economy. Thus, we look forward to the agreement of the US politicians and are going to watch how the EU economic growth will slow down, if it will. In this connection, we are standing aside and waiting for the news. It is not the case when the actual movement will be in the opposite direction.
GBP/USD
The British currency is still that cautious. gbpusd is consolidating a bit below 1.60. In the recent few days we have observed some upward trend, whose support shifted first from 1.5914 to 1.5929 and last night already to 1.5950. Today Britain will see producer prices and consumer inflation statistics, but they will hardly arouse much volatility as market observers now pay more and more attention to the real economy indicators.
USD/JPY
Similarly the yen keeps falling. The local low was hit at 98.70 on closing of the US exchanges. Now the pair has slightly retraced back to 98.50. Besides, the technical indicators show that there's no longer overbuying, which again raises the growth potential of the pair. Let's add here possible growth of the dollar in case an agreement in the USA is achieved. So, 100 yens per dollar will probably be reached already this week.
AUD/USD
The October RBA meeting minutes have pointed out that the previous softening of the policy has started taking effect in the economy. However, the Bank doesn't exclude the possibility of further easing of the policy in the future in case of need. This remote prospect of decline helped the Australian currency, raising the rate to 0.9235, which is the four-month high.
