EUR/usd
This morning the Asian markets are under a slightly descending pressure, but the pressure is moderate and therefore doesn't tell on the currency quotes. Yesterday the euro went through a few disturbing hours, but then investors resumed buying the currency. The disappointment in the high yield, which investors demanded of the Spanish long-term bonds, caused the decline of the euro/dollar from 1.3150 to 1.3070. The sales were also boosted by the rumours that Hollande, who is known to be against the earlier EU arrangements and agreements, is taking the lead in the French presidential race. The leaders of the largest economies of the region, Merkel and Cameron, are furious. That's really what they haven't expected. However, already in a few hours the euro grew back to the levels from which it had fallen earlier. Now the pair is quoted at 1.3150. Actually, it may be regarded as a bullish signal as the bears didn't manage to push the pair down. In the short term the odds may turn in favour of the bulls. However, for a real movement there should be a strong reason, which actually may come up at the g20 and IMF meeting this weekend. Earlier this week we heard that, except for the American Continent, all the other European and Asian countries are ready to allocate money to curb and eventually put an end to the debt crisis. In this respect Europe and Asia depend on the state of exterior affairs. The USA and satellite- Canada can stew in their own juice, enjoying the growth of their local economies and staying immune to the European issues. This is what they think. But it is only partially true. They don't have immunity, just time to get ready, but Americans are heading for elections, so hardly anything else can bother this country's politicians now.
GBP/USD
The sterling keeps strengthening its positions, consolidating above 1.60. Now trading is held above 1.6060. Should the events develop positively today, we may see testing of the 1.61 level or even of the higher one. Fundamentally, the sterling may get support on the retail sales statistics today. The economists generally forecast the sales growth by 0.4% in March against 0.8% a month before. At this the annual growth rate is predicted to rise from 1.0% to 1.5%, which is good in itself, but rather moderate. Will it be enough to boost the rally? Better rely on a more significant growth. In the euro/pound it is already noticeable how market players pick up the pair on the dips.
USD/JPY
The dollar/yen is gradually growing and is already at 81.57 now. Judging by the commentaries in the news feeds, the markets consider it certain that there will be another round of QE and Bank's infusions. We believe that in regard to this and to demand for risky assets on the whole, the coming G20 meeting will be of great importance. If the finance ministers come to an understanding that the current situation is not much better than that in 2008/09 and that to improve it they should join their efforts, it may lead to the surge of optimism in the markets. Otherwise, the saying ‘sell in May' will work even before the month begins.
AUD/USD
The first alarming signal for aussie-bulls has come in today. Import and Export Price Indexes have been released. The ore and coal price drop led to the 7% decrease in export prices in 1Q. The import was also put under pressure and shrank by 1.2%. Need we say that it's far below the expectations? Still there is a slim chance that this sharp decline won't affect the consumer prices. On the news release the Aussie has fallen half a point down to 1.03, but by now has already managed to recoup the losses. The support at 1.03 is very strong.
