EUR/usd
The second half-year in the markets will apparently be different from the first one. Earlier this year we observed acceleration of the dollar together with the growth of the US stock markets. Now it seems that despite the time for the Fed to start the stimulus rollback is getting nearer, the USD is depreciating against most of its rivals and the US exchanges lack buyers. Aren't the US assets attractive when the Fed is so close to policy toughening? They ARE attractive, but not against oversold EU assets. According to an old observation, economic improvement in the USA is often half a year ahead of the similar improvement in the euro zone. The States has been demonstrating growth since the second quarter, but already now the euro zone is showing quite nice results, which promises an even more impressive growth in the future. Yet, both the euro and the EU assets are oversold, which is noted by most market observers. Besides, the short memory of traders seems to have already erased the recollections of the EU debt crisis. It is clear from the peripheral bond yields, which have drawn off the maximum levels. Anyway, against stock markets, Forex trends were changing quite sharply last week. Summarizing the results of the previous week, eurusd didn't change at all, remaining at 1.3330. However, during the week there were some futile attempts both to go below 1.32 following the decline of the stock exchanges and to test 1.34 again. Let's see how this tug-of-war will end. This week the markets will be focused on the Fed's meeting minutes and Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
GBP/USD
The British pound felt quite well in the previous two weeks. The cable managed to rise above 1.56, by a powerful move on Thursday going above its 200-day MA. The reason for such a confident behaviour of investors with one of the main losers of the beginning of the year was a serious of positive macroeconomic news. The favourable employment data were supported by the impressive growth of retail activity and industrial production, inflation statistics and the minutes of the MPC's meeting in August also made their positive contribution here. The markets are getting more and more sure that the BOE will soon have to revise its forecasts in favour of policy toughening in the near future.
USD/JPY
Japanese officials are quite surprised that the trade balance still doesn't show any considerable shifts. The modest deficit of ¥182bln in June turned into the deficit of 1024bln in July. Exports have increased by 12.2% against the previous year, but imports are growing at an outstripping rate, having added 19.6% over a year. Now it only remains to see how much this performance involves purchases of corporations, which will extend their sales abroad in the future.
AUD/USD
The aussie feels quite good today, trying to consolidate above 0.92. Partly this is due to a better gold rate. Also traders are building in the rates some sharpening of the RBA's tone, which is expected tomorrow in the minutes of the previous meeting of the Bank. The Aussie doesn't have any problems with growth for now. The only serious resistance is at 0.93, which is almost a figure away yet.
