EUR/usd
The markets still lack this domineering idea that would form the trend in one or the other direction. Though volatility now is higher than in late August, many markets make no headway just like in those times. But then traders had an excuse – “big money” was on summer vacations and there were no ideas at all. Now the situation for EUR/USD is balanced. Each currency in the pair enjoys modest good news and expects high-risk events in the future. Thus, this week we heard about the growth of industrial production in Europe, increase in German exports and a rise in retail sales. Yet Spain is a toxic bomb, which can blow up and cause a collapse of the financial system. The USA boasted good news on the labour market yesterday. The unemployment claims have sharply decreased. They now make 330K, which is the lowest level since February 2008. However, it doesn't actually mean that the market affairs now are in the same state as at that time. The current unemployment level is much higher (4.9% then and 7.8% now) and the employed are now by 4.5bln fewer in number than at that time. The potential bomb in the USA is a fiscal cliff. The USA faced the similar situation in the 30s. The market reaction then was a 40% decline of Dow Jones Index. Yet ignoring the potential concerns, it is possible to see buyers of risky assets and the euro, which don't let the market fall further. EUR/USD has such support at the level of its 200-day MA. Once again the single currency managed to bounce off 1.2825, the Thursday daily low, to 1.2940.
GBP/USD
The recovery of the single currency helped the pound against the dollar. GBP/USD grew to 1.6050 at some point yesterday, however it failed to launch a full-fledged attack, remaining in the narrow channel for the fourth day in a row. In the meantime EUR/GBP is in demand, making the second attempt to go above 0.8070 this week. It would be favourable for the pair, if it broke through the 200-day MA level, which is now passing through 0.8115. Strategically the cross still remains at a very low level.
USD/JPY
The yen made a 180-degree turn. The attempt to break below 78 failed. Apparently, the players prefer not to stake on purchases of the pair before the G7 meeting this weekend. Earlier a representative of Japan's Finance Ministry mentioned that Japan would seek support for the launch of interventions to lower the rate of its currency. What chance does it stand, considering that almost all the developed countries and the better part of the emerging ones would prefer to see their domestic currencies below the current levels to spur the business activity?
gold
Gold is again out of favour. It's slightly bounced off the local lows ($1757) and is now trading at 1769. It is already a good point that players want to purchase. The exterior background is also favourable , since there is no visible decline in the markets. It means that large players can now gradually build up their positions in Gold, staking on an almost traditional growth of the metal in October.
