EUR/usd
The emerging markets feel pressure in connection with risk aversion, while futures and indices of the developing countries as well as the currency market remain relatively quiet. The thing is that the main political fight is still ahead. The overwhelming majority of the Crimean people, as expected, voted for annexing to Russia. America and the new authorities in Kiev, as expected, don't recognize the referendum and speak about intrusion of the Russian troops into the Ukraine. The West is threatening with sanctions, though the observers, including the foreign ones, note that the referendum was carried out quietly. The risks are very high as the markets will carefully consider all the claims from the involved parties. Stronger pressure may stir up another storm in the markets, especially in the emerging ones, as money will speed towards safe havens. Just like two weeks ago, eurusd doesn't react to the recent events as the euro as well as the dollar are treated as safe currencies. Trading is held close to 1.3900, just like at the end of the trading day on Friday. It should be mentioned that at the end of the week the pair found enough strength to close quite high. Thursday's decline was recouped and the level of 1.3850, where the pair was consolidating at the beginning of the previous week, now seems to be quite a good support for the euro. There is a feeling that bulls don't abandon the idea to attack 1.4000 before the Fed's decision on Wednesday. Upon the whole, we expect that the fomc will show its hawkish mood at the press-conference after the decision due to optimistic economic forecasts. It may arouse high interest in the US currency. Lately the dollar has suffered selling on the part of China and/or Russia. This information is just a rumour, but fits in the circumstances well enough. China publishes quite an unsteady trade balance and obviously slackens the growth pace, and Russia may secure itself against sanctions, cutting its investments into the US assets. The official statistics for January are released only today and it is unlikely that there will be any shifts.
GBP/USD
The British pound also has its defense line. The cable keeps afloat above 1.6600, though its dynamics is clearly not enough to struggle with the appreciating euro. As far as statistics are concerned, this day is rather boring, so most of the attention will be focused on disagreements about the Ukraine. Decline of the markets poses a more serious threat for the pound than for the euro, but the opposite of it is also true: should the tension ease, gbpusd may come into good demand. In the afternoon it wouldn't go amiss to pay attention to the data on the US industrial production.
USD/JPY
The yen was in good demand on Friday as investors were trying to reduce their risks before the referendum in the Crimea. Today we can observe cautious purchasing of risky assets, causing some appreciation in usdjpy. From the weekly open it has grown by 20 pips and from the lows of the previous week – by a bit over 30 pips. It's cautious growth amid serious uncertainty around the geopolitical situation.
gold
Amid geopolitical tensions Gold feel better than others. This precious metal is again in demand due to investors' vigilance regarding risky assets, in connection with growth of real inflation and quite favourable positions for buying. Having grown by about 200 dollars to the price per ounce, this metal is still by 13% cheaper than a year ago.
