EUR/usd
It seems that markets, including Forex, are finally waking up from the summer siesta. Since our previous review the single currency has gained half a point from 1.2350 to 1.2490. At night EUR corrected a bit and is now trading at 1.2460.Thus, the issue with the stability of the upward channel is settled. Should the pair continue growing, we will probably see it near 1.26 even before the end of this week. Turning to the news background, we cannot single out any particularly important event, so the current motion is sure to have the technical nature. The similar breakthrough could be observed in other exchanges. For example, the S&P futures reached the four-year high, but then immediately dropped. The fact that the euro bore stoutly those fluctuations shows that euro-traders are considering some other factors rather than risk demand at the moment. As follows from the news feeds, everyone expects that the meetings of Greek Prime Minister Samaras with the leaders of other states this week will bring positive results, which would be favourable for the euro. However, the euro/dollar is influenced not only by the EU news. Today, for instance, we'll see the minutes of fomc's meeting in August. Many are skeptical about the document, expecting no changes in the rhetoric. Moreover, just like two years ago, traders hope to hear about some shifts in the policy from Bernanke at the Fed's conference in Jackson Hole next week. However, we can scarcely believe that the market will manage to avoid strong moves already before the end of this week. The beginning was marked, now either bulls will strengthen their pressure and break a support after a support targeting the 1.30 level or the current surge is nothing more than a sham weakness of bears. It's quite likely that the euro is given freedom to go up just to gain liquidity for the further drop.
GBP/USD
The industrial production and trade balance statistics aren't the only reason for sighs of regret in Whitehall now. The data on public sector borrowing made it clear that the budget balance of the current financial year won't meet the forecasts. The decrease in supplies from corporate incomes widens the budget deficit of this year. Last month the budget revenue fell by 1% while expenditures grew by 5%. However, these figures didn't upset the bulls, which sweepingly broke through the 1.5760 level and even touched 1.58. The powerful upward jerk of the market after breaking of the 200-day MA speaks about serious intentions of market players and about their resolution to keep moving in the same direction.
USD/JPY
The yen, as is often the case, is in the antiphase. It concerns not only the direction of the movement, but also the dynamics of fluctuations. Yesterday's rally in the exchanges failed to enliven trading in USD/JPY. The correction lasted all through the day and stopped only this morning after hitting the level of 79.15. If the previous shift of the yen from 78 to 79.60 hadn't been false, today we would probably see further purchases of the pair on the way to 80. The Japanese statistics are far from being perfect again. Exports are decreasing (-8.1% y/y) and imports are growing (by 2.1%). In regard to the foreign trade, this year promises to be horrible for Japan, so it only remains to see how horrible it will be.
USD/CAD
The canadian dollar again has grown to the level, where it feels unsteady against its American counterpart. Yesterday the pair demonstrated a strong inverse correlation with American stock markets. First it hit new lows (0.9840) and then swung round. Now USD/CAD is again trying to go above 0.99. Remember that at the beginning of the year the pair spent about 3 months between 0.9870 and 1.0050.
