EUR/usd
Tonight the Fed will announce the results of the two-day fomc meeting. The CB is not expected to take any certain measures, this is why the markets will tend to look out for the signs of change in the Committee's mood. There is much food for thought as a series of strong news on the economy has been followed by a batch of rather poor data. Although the labour market is growing, the rate of job creation has conspicuously decreased. The US consumer sentiment is also retreating from its maximum levels, achieved over the previous months. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence indicator, published yesterday, sank down to 69.2 in April. The March figure was also revised down. Thus, the highest consumer confidence was reported in February. This roughly coincides with the developments in the labour market. The data on the US estate property don't help to clearly define the situation either. The New Home Sales shrank by 7.1% in March. Meanwhile, the previous figure was revised up (+7.5%), so eventually the released data managed to exceed the expectations. However, statistics on prices leave much to be desired. The housing prices keep falling and this is not a very good signal as more and more people turn out to owe more than they have. Under such circumstances Bernanke will hardly forget to mention about the readiness to further support the economy. Apart from the major FOMC statement, we're also waiting for the press-conference of the Fed's head today. This event may lead to strong market volatility. The euro has good potential for movement in either direction as it is close to the local highs at 1.32. Thus, traders either will gather in stops at the top or drive the pair to 1.30 in the direction of the lower boundary of fluctuations for the recent days.
GBP/USD
The British couldn't hold out longer and gave up the idea of budget consolidation. In March Public Sector Net Borrowing made £15.9 bln against £15.1 bln a year ago. On the whole, the figures are not the worst ones – the borrowing was approximately at the same level last November – nevertheless it's dubious if the British government still sticks to budget consolidation. Curiously enough, all that doesn't seem to cause any trouble to the sterling-bulls. Yesterday the pair managed to go up to 1.6160 and, though today it looks a bit tired, we should give credit to the upward trend which has been in place since April 16. Will it manage to persist longer? In many respects it depends on today's commentaries of the Fed.
USD/JPY
The dollar/yen is supported on the greater demand for stocks. Thus, strong reports of Apple, which spurred the market growth at the end of the US session, helped the Asian indices and pushed USD/JPY to 81.57. The pair is enjoying a good buying interest above 81.0 and it's entirely possible that it may shortly enter the area of local highs at 81.80.
AUD/USD
The aussie-traders more and more tend to expect the rate cut next week. Moreover, it is already rumoured that the rate may be reduced by 50 bp straight away. In our opinion, it is unlikely to happen, however it's quite possible that the cut itself will start the whole cycle of rate reductions and in the following months we will see further easing of the financial conditions.
